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Tuesday 19 August 2008
McCain should pick Rice...will likely pick Ridge
Update: Rush Limbaugh and other high profile Conservatives are warning McCain's campaign not to pick a pro-choice VP or in the case of Joe Lieberman a Democrat. With a rival convention already taking place from the Ron Paul campaign, the last thing McCain needs is a controversy at his convention. McCain is a maverick and often defies his own party, but after gaining some ground at the recent faith discussions, picking Ridge or Lieberman could be very risky. I would say odds are increasing for Huckabee or a candidate like Gingrich who are more likely to be accepted by the base. I still strongly think McCain's best option is Ms. Rice.
-Darryl
By all accounts, John McCain has had a great few weeks. His "celeb" ad about Obama defined his message and even drew a Paris Hilton response into the mix providing him with rare media attention following Obama's international tour. The Iraq surge seems to be working. The situation with Russia and Georgia emphasized his message and strengths on national security. At the recent faith based form he stood firm, answered questions directly and his positions seemed to unite Evangelicals behind him or at the very least demonstrated that he is comfortable talking about faith and the moral issues associated with it. Now with the Democratic convention set for next week, McCain could have a chance to make another big impact with his choice for VP. Unlike Obama, he does not have the Hillary issue interfering with his choice. Should Obama pick a VP other than Hillary and take a hit in the press and within his own party; McCain could be in a strong position to name a quality VP choice and go into the Republican convention with strong momentum leading into what will be the crunch time of this campaign. Despite the unpopularity of the Republican Party, McCain has hung in there in terms of polls against "the biggest celebrity in the world". The fact that he is close to the margin of error and still very competitive in swing states means that this presidential race is still too close to call.
Update: Rush Limbaugh and other high profile Conservatives are warning McCain's campaign not to pick a pro-choice VP or in the case of Joe Lieberman a Democrat. With a rival convention already taking place from the Ron Paul campaign, the last thing McCain needs is a controversy at his convention. McCain is a maverick and often defies his own party, but after gaining some ground at the recent faith discussions, picking Ridge or Lieberman could be very risky. I would say odds are increasing for Huckabee or a candidate like Gingrich who are more likely to be accepted by the base. I still strongly think McCain's best option is Ms. Rice.
-Darryl
By all accounts, John McCain has had a great few weeks. His "celeb" ad about Obama defined his message and even drew a Paris Hilton response into the mix providing him with rare media attention following Obama's international tour. The Iraq surge seems to be working. The situation with Russia and Georgia emphasized his message and strengths on national security. At the recent faith based form he stood firm, answered questions directly and his positions seemed to unite Evangelicals behind him or at the very least demonstrated that he is comfortable talking about faith and the moral issues associated with it. Now with the Democratic convention set for next week, McCain could have a chance to make another big impact with his choice for VP. Unlike Obama, he does not have the Hillary issue interfering with his choice. Should Obama pick a VP other than Hillary and take a hit in the press and within his own party; McCain could be in a strong position to name a quality VP choice and go into the Republican convention with strong momentum leading into what will be the crunch time of this campaign. Despite the unpopularity of the Republican Party, McCain has hung in there in terms of polls against "the biggest celebrity in the world". The fact that he is close to the margin of error and still very competitive in swing states means that this presidential race is still too close to call.
In terms of a VP, McCain has the experience and foreign/military credentials Obama lacks; but there are still weaknesses that a potential VP will have to neutralize to close the deal. McCain still lacks a firm understanding and credibility on the economy. He has still got a ways to go in bringing Conservatives and Evangelicals onside. He should consider a youthful VP choice to neutralize the generational gap with his opponent. Finally he wants to continue to preserve his maverick image and appeal to independents. With no clear front runner, it is anyone's guess who McCain will pick. The choice is expected to be revealed on or around August 29.
Condoleezza Rice
Pro - I would argue the strongest chance for a female President in the near future. Seen as a moderate within the Bush administration. Great credentials and experience in foreign affairs. Young and African American. Probably the highest profile pick available.
Con - Tarnished by George W. Bush and his record. Seen as a failure by some as Secretary of State.
Mitt Romney
Pro - Has performed very well in attacking Obama and representing McCain in the media. It seems a lot of the personal friction between McCain and Romney has cooled. Romney offers strong economic credentials - the number one issue of the upcoming campaign. He was a contender and has been tested on the campaign trail.
Con - Look at Huckabee's comments about Romney. Not embraced by social Conservatives. Changed his positions frequently over the years. Unlikely to be able to win his home state for the Republicans.
Tim Pawlenty
Pro - Governor in the crucial swing state of Minnesota where Republicans will hold their convention. Youthful and moderate. Good working relationship with McCain. Outsider in Washington.
Con - Lacks national profile and name recognition.
Charlie Crist
Pro - Endorsed McCain early and is the governor in another crucial state Florida - a must win if the Republicans are to keep the White House. Seen as a moderate. Fairly young.
Con - Lacks national experience
Sarah Palin
Pro - Female governor of Alaska. Moderate Republican. Next to Rice top female choice in the Republican party.
Con - No national experience. Comes from Alaska - a safe Republican state.
Joe Lieberman
Pro - Calls himself a Democrat. Could emphasize bipartisanship record of McCain. Sees eye to eye with McCain on foreign policy.
Con - Not likely to be embraced by the religious right and many Republicans.
Rudy Giuliani
Pro - His experience and handling on the day of 9/11 is a huge asset. Strong on national security. Strong name recognition. Strong on his attacks of Obama. Generally well respected among Democrats and Independents. Could make the race in New York interesting although few would give Republicans a chance to take that state.
Con - Strengths are similar to McCain. Pro-choice stance will not be helpful with the Republican base. Ran the most disappointing presidential campaign in American history.
Fred Thompson
Pro - A strong Conservative. Brings back memories of Reagan. Has profile in Hollywood.
Con - Beyond Law and Order reruns, has anyone seen him since he dropped out of the Republican primaries?
Mike Huckabee
Pro - Hard not to like him personally. Strongest candidate in terms of appeasing the Evangelical base. Basically the runner up in the Republican primary. Has done a good job representing McCain in the media.
Con - Would he turn off independents? Comes from a safe Republican seat.
Carly Fiorina
Pro - Great in the media for McCain. Strong female and former CEO of HP. Could help neutralize McCain's weaknesses on the economy.
Con - Off the cuff remarks on birth control did McCain no favors. Lacks any kind of government or national experience. Questionable record during her time as HP CEO.
Ron Paul
Pro - The only Republican who was able to engage the youth. Has a huge loyal base of supporters. Finished second in the Republican primary. Strong economic credentials. Good pro-life record. Could neutralize any bleeding to Barr's party.
Con - Not endorsing McCain, in fact is holding a rival convention in MN the same night as the Republican convention. Hard to square his positions - particularly on foreign policy with McCain's. Same age as McCain. Not treated as a legitimate Republican by the Conservative media or base. Many of his supporters more likely to vote Barr or Obama.
Tom Ridge
Pro - Among the strongest credentials on national security. Represents a swing state in PA. Good chemistry with McCain. Has national profile.
Con - Pro-choice and that will not go over well with the base. Strengths compliment McCain's as oppose to neutralize his weaknesses.
Bobby Jindal
Pro - Youthful and first Punjab governor. Represents Katrina state of Louisiana. Was once considered a favorite to be VP. Washington outsider.
Con - Lacks any kind of national experience.
Steve Forbes
Pro - Good choice on the economy. Great name recognition. Has ran for President in the past.
Con - Ideas were not taken seriously. Hasn't been in the national scene in 8 years.
Rob Portman
Pro - Comes from a crucial swing state. Has strong economic credentials.
Con - Linked to George W. Bush
Mark Sanford
Pro - Governor of South Carolina with Washington experience in Congress. Youthful and could hold South Carolina, a state being targeted by the Obama campaign. Strong supporter of McCain during the primaries.
Con - Lacks national profile.
Michael Bloomberg
Pro - Great economic pick and would send a strong message to independents and Republican moderates.
Con - More likely to be on Obama's ticket. Would not go over well with the base. Unlikely to carry New York.
Newt Gingrich
Pro - Powerful and consistent Conservative with a strong record as speaker of the House. Has great ideas and is able to motivate the Conservative movement and base. Has extremely high profile. Strong fiscal and foreign policy credentials.
Con - Sometimes controversial with his remarks and has the power to overshadow McCain.
Newt Gingrich
Pro - Powerful and consistent Conservative with a strong record as speaker of the House. Has great ideas and is able to motivate the Conservative movement and base. Has extremely high profile. Strong fiscal and foreign policy credentials.
Con - Sometimes controversial with his remarks and has the power to overshadow McCain.
Who I think McCain should pick:
Condi Rice would have by far the greatest impact if McCain were to select her. She is youthful compared to McCain. Has strong relationships and experience with foreign leaders and dealing with the international challenges facing America. Seen as a maverick or moderate within the Bush administration at least in contrast to Dick Cheney. Has potential to be the next Republican leader and first female president of the United States. Is respected if not liked by independents and democrats. Being African American could neutralize the racial issue in the campaign. Would come with huge profile. While she is linked to George Bush, so is the Republican Party and John McCain. Realistically McCain can contrast his positions with Bush but cannot disassociate completely. Unfortunately I do not think it will happen as she has not been mentioned by pundits, leaks or the media and has expressed a desire to return to the academic world.
Who I think McCain will pick:
McCain has hinted he would consider a pro-choice candidate as his running mate. I think at the end of the day he is going to pick Tom Ridge because of his home state and security credentials. Unlikely to do much for him on the economy however. If that is McCain's central concern, expect Mitt Romney to be selected with controversy.
Realistic Wildcards:
Joe Lieberman offers a strong message of bipartisanship and could appeal to Democrats. Huckabee could solve his problems with Evangelicals but perhaps hurt him among independents. Pawlenty, Crist, Sanford, Portman, Jindal, and Giuliani are not outside the realm of possibilities. Fiorina or Palin would be strong female choices if he is serious about going after Hillary's supporters. Do not rule out Rice. Newt Gingrich would probably be received the best, but for whatever reason he is not considered a front runner. Don't rule out a surprise with McCain especially if he feels he needs someone to shore up the base.
Final Prediction: McCain takes Ridge despite stronger choices available to him.
Thanks for reading...
Darryl
Thanks for reading...
Darryl
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