Who are PC Ontario Contenders?
Today Bob Runciman was appointed interim PC leader continuing in the same role he played while John Tory was outside the legislature. The appointment of Runciman makes the resignation of John Tory official. This now opens the door for candidates to begin declaring their intentions in the PC Ontario leadership race. The appointment of Runciman as interim leader likely means Runciman himself will not be a candidate. Usually that position requires neutrality during a leadership race.
Federal Finance Minister Jim Flaherty, Minister of Transport, Infrastructure and Communities John Baird, Public Safety Minister Peter Van Loan and Industry Minister Tony Clement have all hinted or announced that they will not enter the PC Ontario leadership race. Today PC Health Critic Elizabeth Witmer announced that she also would not be entering the race. Federal MP Deal Del Mastro was introducing Christine Elliott at the Manning Centre convention and at other events. This likely means he will not be running either despite consideration in the press. MP Scott Reid is part of the Randy Hillier's campaign taking him out of the running as well. Justice Minister Rob Nicholson appears to be backing Tim Hudak taking another federal Ontario based Minister out of the race. While federal candidates such as Diane Finley and Michael Chong have been mentioned as possible, it seems unlikely at this point that anyone will be leaving federal politics to enter the provincial race. Word on the street is that there is heavy resistance to select a leader from outside the legislature following the situation with John Tory's seat. At this point there are three candidates with others possibly entering the race depending on the rules and date to be set this Sunday.
Tim Hudak is perceived by most to be the clear front runner. He has received the backing of former Premier Mike Harris and has a strong team in place right now. MPP Lisa MacLeod has joined his Facebook groups and at 41 he has strong support from the youth delegates and the younger generation of Conservatives. Hudak represents generational change but also comes to the table with 14 years experience in the legislature. He is a former cabinet minister under both Mike Harris and Ernie Eves. Tim represents the riding of Niagara West-Glanbrook and is the current PC Finance Critic. Tim's wife is Deb Hutton, Mike Harris' former chief of staff and a huge asset in putting together a strong organization for this leadership race. He has the strongest organization in place it seems and he also has the largest Facebook following so far for his leadership. Media response to him has been positive.
Christine Elliott is also likely to enter the race. She is best known as the spouse of Federal Finance Minister Jim Flaherty but is a lawyer by trade as well. She was elected in a by-election in her husband's former provincial riding and his current federal riding of Whitby-Oshawa. It is expected that her team will largely consist of the same organization that ran Jim Flaherty's campaign in the last PC leadership contest. Christine will add a female perspective to the leadership battle and is described by some as a moderate. She is fairly new to the political scene and did not serve under Mike Harris or Ernie Eves. She is expected to be a strong candidate, however there are some concerns about some of the challenges that could be involved being married to Canada's finance minister. Ontario Liberals could probably have fun with that. She has the credentials and talent to run in her own capacity, but Mr. Flaherty is surely the elephant in the room with regards to her campaign.
Randy Hillier is a controversial candidate but in my opinion has a place in this contest. He will have difficulty with the youth vote of the party following his motion in Niagara Falls to eliminate the youth wing. The amount of youth voters will be substantial and they will play a big part in selecting the next leader. Hillier uses the slogan "Ontario is more than just Toronto" and while that is true, it will make it difficult to win ridings in Toronto and GTA. Randy is a right wing Conservative who has the potential to bring many new members into the contest. He is the former President of the Landowners Association and it is believed that he will have a loyal and organized following. He is likely to sign up the most new members. It will be interesting to see how he appeals to the media, Bay Street and urban ridings. I think he will appeal strongly to rural members but it remains to be seen what kind of economic prescriptions he can present during the global financial crisis. He is a wildcard both in terms of how well he will do and also on what he might say. Randy is not afraid to speak his mind and I respect him as a maverick.
Frank Klees ran in the 2004 race and hails from my riding of Newmarket-Aurora. In the last campaign he ran on private healthcare and is a former cabinet minister under Mike Harris and Ernie Eves. Based on reports in the media he is pushing for a later vote for the fall at Sunday's executive meeting. He is currently considering the possibility of entering the leadership race with a decision coming soon I hear. Frank also considered running for the leadership of the Canadian Alliance in the past. Currently Frank Klees is the caucus chair of the Ontario PC Party. Should he enter the race it is possible that he could quickly put together a team based on his previous leadership campaign. The outcome of the meeting on Sunday will likely determine if he is in the race or not. On Sunday the rules and the leadership date will be set. Frank is well spoken and a strong constituency MP. To be a serious contender he will have to make a decision fairly quickly as other candidates are already recruiting donors, volunteers and strategists as part of their team. I come from the riding of Newmarket-Aurora and serve on Frank's board of directors and worked on his last election campaign. At this point I don't know one way or the other if Frank plans to enter the race. Hopefully it will be more clear next week following the events of this weekend.
There are other potential candidates who might enter or are sending out feelers. Will a federal cabinet minister enter after all? Minister of Human Resources and Skills Development Diane Finley who is married to federal campaign strategist Doug Finley was floated today in the Globe. How about someone like Julian Fantino, the current OPP chief? Is there anyone in municipal politics or the business community who might enter? Is there anyone left within the caucus still considering? Laurie Scott? There seems to be some agreement that the next leader should come from the legislature but is that a barrier to large to overcome? If someone out there is still thinking about getting into the mix, time is running out quickly to mount a competitive campaign.
On Sunday all of the candidates will likely know the rules and the timing of the vote. The Ontario budget is set for March 26. I think anytime starting next week you will officially see candidates enter or decline to enter the leadership race. I predict by April 1, this leadership race will be in full swing. The big question is will a federal election take place in the middle of the PC leadership race? Right now it is a great time to be a member of the PC Ontario Party. Dalton McGuinty is on the ropes and there are many talented candidates looking to offer their services as leader of our party. This thing will either be decided before Canada Day or in September following a summer of membership and fundraising drives, BBQs and tours of the province. So far, a good amount of interest has been demonstrated by the newspapers and television stations covering this leadership race. I think the renewal aspect will properly prepare our party to be election ready in 2011.
I would be interested to hear how readers of the Blogging Tories are leaning!!!
Thanks for reading...
-Darryl
Facebook by the Numbers:
Draft Tim Hudak (groups x 3): 390 members, 226 members, 261 members
Draft Christine Elliott: 186 members
Draft Randy Hillier: 151 members
Draft Frank Klees: 71 members
