NDP and Liberals reach a deal but is Iggy onside?
It appears the NDP and Liberals have reached a deal on a coalition, but is Michael Ignatieff on side? It appears he might be getting cold feet knowing it is most likely that he will lead the Liberals into the next election and is starting to see the consequences of what this unholy alliance could mean for the next campaign. If Igantieff or any of the other leadership candidates are smart, they would let Dion be leader. I would not want my leadership tarred by working with the Bloc Quebecois and the socialists. I would also be afraid to take leadership during a time of economic crisis where the inevitable deficits, increased unemployment and other economic indicators are sure to impact the popularity of whoever is the Canadian Prime Minister over these next few months. If I am Michael Ignatieff I would also be afraid of Question Period where his legitimacy to serve as Prime Minister would be heavily attacked.
With a lack of Conservative support on any issue, it is clear that the Bloc, NDP and Liberals will be forced to agree on everything to get something accomplished. If the coalition agreement only means that the BQ will support the government on confidence votes, than the consequence of that means nothing will get passed except on confidence votes or unless the Bloc supports the legislation. Committees will be disfunctional. Western premiers would be angry about their lack of influence in the new government. World leaders might be confused about who is running the show in Canada. Protests are possible. The Liberal leader at the head of the coalition would be forced to give in to extortion from the NDP and Bloc Quebecois at every turn or else they would face an election as the alternative. Michael Ignatieff is a smart man and I believe he wants no part of this coalition. A good friend of mine posted on his facebook that for the cost of 30 million dollars Flaherty has managed to unite the left. That is probably true, but I would also argue that the price of this coalition may be a Conservative majority that up until now has not been possible. Any Liberal west of Ontario knows full well they would be toast if they were part of a coup that completely reduced all influance in the West and replaced it with a government controlled by 69 Quebec MPs with 50 of them representing a separatist party. Does the NDP want to keep their seat in Alberta? The opposition has a choice, power now illegitimately for a period of time with the consequence being opposition for a generation after the next election or they can rebuild and earn power through democratic means. I predict Liberals will take the quick route to power because in their minds it is an entitlement.
-Darryl
Ignatieff balks at joining NDP, Bloc
John Ivison, National Post Published: Monday, December 01, 2008
Liberal leadership candidate Michael Ignatieff is unlikely to support the coalition deal being negotiated by lame duck leader Stephane Dion -- a decision that would doom the opposition parties' attempt to bring down the government next week in a vote of no-confidence in the House of Commons.
A person close to Mr. Ignatieff said that any deal with the Bloc Quebecois and NDP struck by Mr. Dion would be a "poison chalice" for the next leader.
He said that Mr. Ignatieff has the support of more than 50 of the 77 Liberal MPs, so the success or failure of a coalition proposition will depend on how the leadership candidate views any deal.
Although Mr. Ignatieff has publicly maintained the official Liberal line that the government should fall over its handling of the economy, his supporters say any coalition deal with the left-wing NDP and separatist Bloc is fraught with risk. It would only take nine Liberals to be absent from the House next Monday for the government to survive, and the source said he fully expects a number of no-shows.
Liberal attempts to reach a deal with the NDP face a number of hurdles, not least of which is the New Democrats' insistence on a senior economic portfolio such as industry for leader Jack Layton.
The Liberals are equally determined that those economic jobs should be held exclusively by them. But one senior Grit confided that the internal leadership dynamic creates even bigger obstacles to an agreement than negotiations with the New Democrats.
The source in the Ignatieff camp said Mr. Dion is making all the decisions on coalition talks with the NDP and the Bloc Quebecois, and is not consulting with leadership candidates, Mr. Ignatieff, Bob Rae or Dominic LeBlanc.
"Dion is like Frankenstein's monster -- he's on the slab and just had a jolt of life injected into him. He's going full tilt ahead with this coalition but his caucus isn't going with him," the source said.
Mr. Ignatieff's supporters are aware that a coalition would be shaky, and probably short-lived. The Conservatives opened their war room yesterday, just in case the country is plunged into an election next week, and are already preparing to hammer the Liberals for striking a deal with the sovereigntist Bloc. "Ignatieff knows he will probably be leader next May, so why not do it cleanly and properly? What's in it for him to be part of this power grab?" asked one Conservative, who said he was also hearing from sources that Mr. Ignatieff does not want to be part of any deal.
Despite the increased likelihood that the government will survive the confidence vote, the coming week is still likely to be full of high drama.
Yesterday, the government continued its attempts to remove the irritants that provoked the crisis. The proposed ban on strikes for the public service was ditched, following the remarkable U-turn on the public funding of political parties issue on Saturday. Jim Flaherty, the Finance Minister, said yesterday that he will bring down a Budget on Jan. 27, although he stopped short of promising the kind of stimulus package the opposition parties have been demanding.
Scott Brison, the Liberal finance critic, said that the government's moves mean nothing. "We can't trust anything this government says anymore. We have no faith in this Prime Minister," he said.
The Conservatives hope that the focus of media coverage will now shift to the potential coalition partners and what the some Tories have been calling their " coup d'etat."
The allegation that NDP leader Jack Layton and the Bloc Quebecois' Gilles Duceppe held conversations about a coalition long before the current crisis offered the Conservatives the chance to hit back after days of being pounded over the political funding issue. They charged that the confidence vote is not about the handling of the economy or the government's fall update, "[It] is merely a trigger to execute a long-standing secret deal between the NDP and the Quebec separatists."
The Conservatives have alleged that the moves by the opposition parties to offer themselves up to the Governor-General as a viable alternative, should the government fall, are undemocratic. However, the Liberals retaliated by saying that Mr. Harper, Mr. Layton and Mr. Duceppe presented precisely the same proposal to former Governor-General, Adrienne Clarkson, in 2005.
The only certainty amidst the drama is that Stephen Harper has been wounded by his miscalculation. His reputation for strategic brilliance is in tatters and many Conservatives have started speculating about leadership challenges.
