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Tuesday 3 May 2011
Now that the LPC has lost its leader and half its seats, and seen its percentage of the votes cast slashed down to below 20%, the rebuilding will start.
There will be analyses by many of what went wrong and why, but that is not what The Cat wants to talk about in this post.
I want to set out the two Gamechanging policies I want the new leader of the Liberal Party to adopt BEFORE THE ELECTION OF LEADERS IS HELD, so as to ensure that the Harper Tories are tossed out of power in 2015.
I will vote for and blog on behalf of any candidate for leadership of the LPC who adopts these two core gamechanging policies as part of his or her run for the leadership:
I will vote for and blog on behalf of any candidate for leadership of the LPC who adopts these two core gamechanging policies as part of his or her run for the leadership:
A commitment to
1. implement some system of Proportional Representation after the 2015 election to replace the archaic and undemocratic First Past The Post (FPTP) system we now have, and
2. enter into an Electoral Ceasefire Pact with the NDP with respect to certain ridings.
The Harsh Facts:
Before we discuss the details of these two gamechangers, look at this CBC chart showing the percentage of votes cast and number of seats won by the parties in 2011:
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| 2011 CBC - Votes& Seats Won |
This other CBC chart also illustrates this in a different format:
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| CB Votes & Seats of Parties in 2011 |
And look at this CBC chart showing which party has a share of the 50 seats with the smallest margins in 2011 (the Tories have the largest number – 22 in all):
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| BC - 50 Seats with Smallest Margins 2011 |
The Harsh Conclusion from the above facts:
What do the above items demonstrate?
That the united right wing party of Harper will win a majority of seats in 2015 if the centre-left parties split the vote yet again in that election, as we did yesterday.
Proportional Representation to lead to a more democratic Canada:
The commitment to implement Proportional Representation in all provinces in which 50% plus 1 votes in favour are obtained in a referendum after the 2015 election, will remedy the over- and under-weighting of votes we find in our FPTP system.
PR will give be fairer to all citizens, and will prevent a result such as yesterday's where a minority of votes (40%) resulted in a majority of seats (54% of total seats or 166 for Harper's new Tories). Voters in all regions will be represented according to their share of votes cast in each province – see this article for more details on political reform.
Jack Layton's NDP and Elizabeth May's Green Party both support some form of electoral reform in the form of PR, and so should be willing to agree with the new Liberal leader to enter into a written agreement pledging their parties to support the referendum on a PR system once the opposition parties toss out the Harper Tory government in the 2015 election.
Electoral Ceasfire Pact between LPC and NDP to avoid vote splitting in 2015:
Also, the Electoral Ceasefire Pact the Liberal Party will offer to enter into with the NDP is aimed at preventing vote splitting in the 2015 election yet again leading to the Tories gaining a majority of seats with less than a majority of votes.
The Ceasefire Pact will mean that the Liberal Party will not merge with the NDP, but that both parties will retain their separate existence.
The Ceasefire Pact will be a flexible one, designed to reduce the number of seats won by the Tories in 2011 with small margins and total votes cast that were less than the combined NDP and LPC votes cast.
The 22 Tory seats with the smallest margins – see the above chart – could be the ones covered by the Ceasefire Pact.
The NDP and LPC will agree that in the 2015 election for these 22 Chosen Seats, the two parties will not compete with each other but will agree to run just one candidate from one of the parties, and ask their members to vote for the Chosen Candidate. This will stop vote splitting for these Chosen Seats.
To ensure a majority of NDP plus LPC seats won in 2015, the Ceasefire Pact might also extend to selected other seats won by either party in the 2011 election.
The Ceasefire Pact will not apply to all other Tory seats won in 2011, where the NDP and LPC will duke it out with the Tories.
No coalition or cooperation agreement between NDP and LPC:
Apart from the PR commitment and the Ceasefire Pact, there will be no agreement by the NDP and LPC to enter into a coalition after the 2015 election, or any other form of cooperation.
If – as is likely if the Ceasefire Pact is implemented – one of the leaders of the NDP or LPC becomes the next Prime Minister in 2015, he or she will attempt to gain the confidence of the House on a case by case basis.
However, both parties will agree to pass legislation to hold the PR referendum and if it is successful in any pronvinces, the legislation needed to implement it in those provinces.
Advantages to NDP and LPC:
The parties retain their individual status as parties, and do not commit to any coalition or cooperation agreement except these two (PR and Ceasefire Pact).
However, the chances of avoiding another Tory majority of seats in 2015 through vote splitting by the NDP and LPC in the seats covered by the Ceasefire Pact are substantially reduced because of only one candidate from one of the parties running in each such seats.
How about it, Liberals?
Let's start off realistically, with our aim being the prevention of an unfair Tory majority in 2015 based on vote splitting.
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