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Tuesday, 27 July 2010
The first springs from this observation from threehundredand eight (one of our most skilled poll interpreters):
I think this chart is a very solid argument in favour of having leaders from Quebec.
His argument is based on an analysis of support for the Liberals since 1960 during years when the party was lead by a Francophone born and bred in Quebec, and when a non-Francophone lead it. The thrust of his argument – based on his analysis – is that Francophone voters in Quebec are more likely to vote for a party lead by someone born and bred in Quebec who is identified as being "one of them". He writes:
Quebec has a great sense of its own identity. While people from Ontario might consider Stephen Harper a Westerner and people from the West might consider Michael Ignatieff an Ontarian, there is less of an "us vs. them" mentality. They're all Canadians.
But for Quebecers, both Harper and Ignatieff are outsiders. It's a much bigger distinction and Quebecers see these two leaders differently than they do someone like Gilles Duceppe or Stéphane Dion. If Harper or Ignatieff show a good understanding of Quebecers and their values, that will be respected. If they speak the French language well enough that will be appreciated. But for a leader like Duceppe or past party leaders who hailed from from Quebec, it is an entirely different kettle of fish.
The lesson for the Liberals? Choose someone to lead the party who is clearly identified within Quebec as a Francophone. This might give the party a chance to give voters in that province an easy way to move their votes from 'hometown boy' Duceppe to this new leader.
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