By-election Analysis
Last night four by-elections took place in BC, Quebec and Nova Scotia. In general it is never a good idea to get too excited about by-election results, nonetheless they do mean something and can have large implications.
In March of 2009 in the riding of Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock, John Tory was upset by Rick Johnson in a by-election in the province of Ontario. Tory had just come off of a strong convention, was PC Party leader and ran in a riding that was considered safe for the blue side following Laurie Scott's decision to step down to allow the leader a seat in the Legislature. Tory was defeated and resigned as leader the next day. Today Tim Hudak is party leader and a recent poll has his party leading in the Province of Ontario.
Federally in 2008 Rob Clarke won in Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River after local Liberals found themselves in a feud with David Orchard during the nomination process. In 2007 Thomas Mulcair pulled off an upset in Outremont and Denis Lebel won in Roberval—Lac-Saint-Jean. All three still hold their seats today. Since the beginning of the 38th parliament in 2004, there have been ten by-elections federally. Only 3 or 30% changed party representation heading into last night. All MPs elected in by-elections since 2000 remain in the House of Commons today except Raymond Gravel a former Bloc MP. Some pundits think of by-elections as flash in the pan protest votes however vidence since 2004 shows that not to be the case. It is quite possible that all incumbents elected last night will hold their seats in the next general election whenever it occurs.
After last night there is spin coming from all sides but the results speak for themselves. The Conservatives picked up two seats and are now ten shy of a majority. The Bloc lost a seat and held another. The NDP held a seat in BC. The Liberals were not even in the game in any of these by-elections. Current standings have the Conservatives with 145 seats, Liberals 77, NDP 37 and Bloc 48. Andre Arthur is an independent but the Conservatives did not run a candidate against him in the 2008 election and he generally votes with the Conservatives as a self described libertarian. Following these by-elections only the Conservatives have gained seats and only the Bloc has lost a seat since the last general election. The Liberals and the NDP remain status quo.
In each of the ridings there was also some interesting messages. While results in New Westminster—Coquitlam, Hochelaga and Cumberland—Colchester—Musquodoboit Valley were widely expected, the upset in Montmagny—L'Islet—Kamouraska—Rivière-du-Loup is notable.
The fact the Liberals were not contenders in any of the by-elections and showed worse than Dion in three of the ridings has to be of concern to Liberal strategists. Clearly there is not much momentum for Ignatieff in BC despite the Liberal convention in Vancouver. The same can be said about Quebec where there was talk of big Liberal breakthroughs a few months ago. In Atlantic Canada - usually a considered a Liberal stronghold, the NDP finished second this time. The NDP also finished second in Montreal repeatng some of that Outremont magic. There is no way to spin that as positive for Liberals and there is a reason why Ignatieff, Kinsella and Liblogs have been silent today about these results. The NDP on the other hand have good reason to celebrate their results last night but let's not go to far. Even if they steal a few seats away from the Liberals in the next election, how satisified will the left be with a Conservative majority? Ten ridings is not that big of a hurdle now.
Montmagny—L'Islet—Kamouraska—Rivière-du-Loup had not seen Conservative representation since 1993 when PC MP André Plourde was defeated by Paul Crête who resigned to run in the provincial electon only to be defeated by Charest Liberal Jean D'Amour in that contest. Prior to that former ADQ leader Mario Dumont represented the riding from 1994 until March of 2009. Personally I always wanted Dumont to run for the federal Conservatives, but yesterday a new star was found in former La Pocatière mayor Bernard Généreux who pulled off the upset. Pundits and polls dismissed the Conservatives in Quebec. The coalition, ADQ demise, culture cuts, relations with Charest, gun registry and economy all proved theories false that the Conservative support had NOT evaporated in the province. This type of rural Quebec riding is exactly the type of riding Tories need to target in order to build the coalition required for a majority. Harper now at least has hope for future Quebec gains. Despite writing Harper off, the BQ once again find themselves in a fight with the Conservatives in rural Quebec and Quebec City while at the same time they are fighting a different battle with the Liberals and NDP in the Montreal area of Quebec.
In the 2008 election in Cumberland—Colchester—Musquodoboit Valley, Bill Casey deserved to be re-elected for standing up for constituents despite being expelled from the Conservative caucus. I like MPs with courage and an independent streak. Having said that, it is great news that Conservative Rob Armstrong easily won the riding following Casey's decision to retire as an MP after former Nova Scotia Premier Rodney MacDonald announced that Casey would be the senior representative for the Department of Intergovernmental Affairs in Ottawa for the province. In New Westminster—Coquitlam Conservatives finished a strong second to a strong NDP candidate in Fin Donnelly replacing Dawn Black. The HST and salmon issue proved to be winners in BC allowing the NDP to hold the seat. Even in the Montreal area riding of Hochelaga there was some positive news for Harper. Conservatives gained their share of the vote by 1%. The Liberal vote dropped 6% while the NDP increased 5% allowing them to finish second. There was less than 1000 votes difference between the Liberals and Conservatives. There was less than 2000 votes difference between the NDP and Conservatives. To be fair all three have a long way to go in order to defeat the Bloc who carried 51.2% of total votes. With that said, there doesn't seem to be much difference between Conservative and Liberal support in a riding close to the Montreal Liberal fortress.
Overall it was a good night for Conservatives and the NDP. A bad day for the Bloc Quebecois and Liberals. Bottom line is that the Conservatives are now two seats closer to that majority government. Liberals have clearly not gained any momentum with Ignatieff from where they were under Dion. I have seen a lot of Liberal spin that these by-elections do not matter and no one expected them to win. That may be true but if Dalton McGuinty would have taken that attitude in a recent by-election perhaps John Tory would still be leader and in Queen's Park grilling his government on eHealth today. At some point if Liberals want to win government, you have to gain seats in ridings where you cannot see the CN Tower. Right now the Liberal Party does not look very strong outside of the most urban ridings in Toronto, Vancouver and Montreal. On the flip side a Conservative majority is so close you can taste it.
Congratulations to Scott Armstrong, Bernard Généreux , Daniel Paillé and Fit Donnelly for their victories last night!
