25 ridings the Conservatives should target for a Majority
After last night's by-election, the Conservatives now hold 145 seats in the House of Commons. Assuming that the Conservatives could hold all of them (and that is a big assumption), here is 20 ridings the Conservatives should target to win a majority. Right now 10 more would be required to win that majority government. Current polls have shown Tory support ranging from 37-41%. The percentage is important, but ultimately in Canadian politics it comes down to seats. These targeted seats assume no breakthrough in Toronto and Montreal. 17 of these seats are currently held by Liberals, 6 by the NDP, 1 by the Bloc and 1 is an independent. Obviously there are a lot of close ridings the Conservatives won as well.
If current polls hold and Conservative MPs ensure re-election, 10 out of 25 of these ridings would be a majority government. In 1984, Brian Mulroney won 211 seats and over 50% of the vote. Stephen Harper currently holds 145 seats our of 308.
North
1. Yukon
Conservative Darrell Pasloski lost by less than 2000 votes in the last election while turnout increased and the Liberal vote decreased. The seat is currently held by Liberal Larry Bagnell. If former Yukon Party Cabinet Minister Brad Cathers runs for the Tories, the race might be close. Harper has made a big push in the North since winning government. Hopefully some of that Palin magic in Alaska crosses the border and energizes Conservatives in Yukon as well.
2. Western Arctic
Currently held by NDP Dennis Bevington, this riding is very winnable for the Conservatives especially with Harper's focus on the North. Last time Bevington got 5669 votes compared to Conservative Brendan Bell's 5146. Liberals were a distant third with 1858 votes. This time former Premier Joe Handley is running for the Liberals potentially opening up a strong three way race.
BC
3. Burnaby - Douglas
Currently held by NDP Bill Siksay, in 2008 this election was close with the NDP getting 37.94% of the vote compared to the CPC 36.25% Who is able to take the more of the Liberal 19.4% could make the difference in this riding. Ronald Leung ran for the Conservatives in 2008.
4. Vancouver South
Former NDP Premier and Liberal Star candidate Ujjal Dosanjh only defeated the Conservatives by 22 votes in the last election. Wai Young represented the Conservatives in 2008.
5. Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca
Keith Martin's riding. Last time he won by 68 votes against Conservative Troy DeSouza. Would love to see Martin cross the floor and get back in the fold. Otherwise this will likely be a close race again. Keith Martin was a former Reform/Canadian Alliance MP between 1993-2003 and is personally popular in his riding.
Alberta
6. Edmonton-Strathcona
NDP Linda Duncan upset Rahim Jaffer in the last election breaking up the Conservative Alberta sweep. Ryan Hastman will try and take it back in the next election. In 2008 the NDP took 42.5% of the vote compared to the Conservative 41.6%. Getting this riding back is probably priority one for the Conservatives.
Saskatchewan
7. Wascana
Ralph Goodale defeated Conservative Michelle Hunter by less than 5000 votes. Still a long shot, but this is the final red seat in the province. Goodale is winning this riding on personal popularity despite his party affiliation.
Manitoba:
8. Elmwood - Transcona
Winnipeg Jets legend Thomas Steen lost this riding by less than 2000 votes. NDP Jim Maloway is the incumbent here. Would love to see Steen take another shot at the goal.
9. Winnipeg South Centre
Conservatives held their convention in Winnipeg recently. Anita Neville won last time by less than 2000 votes and is the final Liberal in Manitoba. Trevor Kennerd ran for the Conservatives last time.
Ontario:
10. Ajax-Pickering:
Conservative star candidate Chris Alexander will face off against Mark Holland in the GTA. Will that be enough to make up the 3000 vote difference? This could be a huge win for the Conservatives in Ontario on the border of Toronto 416.
11. Brampton Springdale
Rudy Dhalla held this riding by just over 700 votes in 2008. She is a big target I am sure and Parm Gill has been working this riding like crazy. This riding is highly likely to go blue in the next election.
12: Brampton West
While everyone has been paying attention to Ruby Dhalla in Brampton Springdale, quietly Kyle Seeback was about 500 votes from Liberal MP Andrew Kania. This is probably even more likely to go blue than Brampton Springdale.
13. Richmond Hill
Conservatives made some big gains in the last election in York Region picking up Newmarket-Aurora, Oakridges-Markham and Thornhill. At one time this riding was represented provincially by Frank Klees and in 2008 the race was a lot closer with Liberal MP Bryon Wilfert fighting to keep his seat. A star candidate could easily close the 5000 vote margin here if current polls hold steady.
14. Mississauga South
Liberal MP Paul Szabo won by about 2000 votes in this GTA riding. Mississauga will be very competitive with the right Conservative candidates in the next election.
15. Welland
A rare tight three way battle where in the last election the NDP took 33% of the vote, Conservatives 32% and the Liberals 28%. NDP MPP Peter Kormos holds the seat provincially and NDP MP Malcolm Allenis the current incumbent.
16. Kingston and the Islands
If speaker Peter Milliken ever retired, this riding would go blue and is surrounded by blue. Like Wascana in Saskatchewan, Milliken is holding this riding on personal popularity.
17. Guelph
Liberal MP Frank Valeriote had 18,977 votes, CPC candidate Gloria Kovach won 17, 185 votes and Green candidate Mike Nagy finished third with 12,456 votes. The Green vote is the wildcard here.
18. Nipissing - Timiskaming
Northern Ontario should have strong potential for the Conservatives but right now it is largely dominated by the NDP. In Nipissing - Timiskaming Anthony Rota beat Conservative Joe Sinicrope by just over 5000 votes. In 2008 we saw an upset in Kenora. Is Nipissing - Timiskaming next? I believe Northern Ontario would be a good place to grow the Conservative base and build on our organizational strength. There is great potential for competitive three way races if time and resources are dedicated to the cause.
New Brunswick:
19. Moncton - Riverview - Dieppe
Current Liberal MP Brian Murphy beat Conservative Daniel Allain by just over 1000 votes. Closest riding in New Brunswick for the Conservatives to pick up.
Prince Edward Island:
20. Malpeque
1000 votes separated the Liberals and Conservatives last time. Wayne Easter would be a big target for Conservatives. Can Mike Duffy make the difference here? In 2008 Conservatives broke into PEI in the Egmont riding.
Newfoundland
21. Avalon 22. St. John's East 23. St. John's South-Mount Pearl
All three of these ridings were held by the Conservative Party and lost in the 2008 election. Is Danny Williams still a factor? Will Newfoundland want to be shut out of the federal government? St. John's South-Mount Pearl is the best chance. Turnout in the last election was low in Newfoundland despite the ABC campaign.
Quebec
24. Portneuf-Jacques-Cartier
Would love to see independent MP Andre Arthur formally join the Conservative caucus. He generally votes with the party and in the last election Conservatives did not run a candidate against him. He is in a close race and his personality would be an asset to the Conservative cause in Quebec. Arthur is a libertarian.
25. Louis-Hébert
Conservative MP Luc Harvey dropped the seat to current Bloc MP Pascal-Pierre Paillé. Could the Conservatives win this one back?
