Modeling Journey

Harper has dangled extended EI benefits totalling around $1 billion for some 190,000 jobless as a carrot before the NDP, and the NDP has said it will support his government until such time as it takes to pass this measure into legislation:

"The federal New Democrats are throwing a lifeline to the Harper government, offering on Wednesday to prop it up and stave off a fall election for as long as it takes to get the House of Commons to approve $1 billion in new support for unemployed Canadians… But when asked how much time he was giving the government to adopt the measures, Layton did not give a deadline, saying he first needed to study the proposal, introduced in Parliament on Wednesday afternoon. The NDP said that defeating the government and forcing an election would prevent unemployed Canadians from receiving the new benefits. "We're not going to do anything to block that money, and an election campaign would definitely block it," said NDP Deputy Leader Thomas Mulcair. "That money wouldn't flow (during an election campaign) to those families who need it, and that's not something we're going to do." … The government has estimated that up to 190,000 people could benefit from the new spending."

One can quibble with Jack Layton about whether we should allow the Tory government to hold hundreds of thousands of Canadians hostage (through their slow injection of funds into the economy under the stimulus programs, and their reluctance to widen the EI laws in a proper fashion, so as to cope with the steep recession facing us).

But Layton's NDP has decided to support the Tories in the coming confidence motion, so as to flow the $1 billion to the 190,000. Of course, Harper understands that Layton has tied a noose around his neck, tightened the knot, thrown the rope over a tree branch, handed the end of the rope to Harper.

It will be interesting to watch just how many times and under what guises Harper (who is not worthy of trust, according to the NDP) will stall the introduction of the legislation so as to ensure that the NDP votes time and again in favour of the government on confidence measures. Just a gentle tug of the noose every now and then might well keep the NDP on it's toes, and doing Harper's bidding.

The irony is that the NDP really do not trust Harper, and really believe that a new government (a minority Liberal one) which provided progressive policies, would be much better for all Canadians.

Of course, there is one way for the Liberals to provide Layton with a means for him to vote against the government on Thursday, and still obtain a strong measure of support for the 190,000 jobless.

Michael Ignatieff might publicly commit to the NDP that should the government fall on Thursday's vote, and the Liberals become the government, he will introduce legislation immediately which provides for at least that $1 billion of aid for those 190,000, with payments backdated to, say, October 30, for those who were unemployed from October 30 until the new Liberal legislation is introduced. That will lessen the harm done to these jobless by providing them with support, even if it is retroactive support.

As part of this offer, Ignatieff can also offer both the NDP and Bloc that the new Liberal government will as a first priority establish an all-party commission tasked with providing the government with further suggested changes to the EI legislation, and requiring such suggestions to be made asap but no later than 45 days after the Liberal government is sworn in. Any changes accepted by the Liberals will be fast tracked into legislation.