Modeling Journey

We know the Tory framing for the next seven weeks:

1. Demonize (that is, disenfranchise) all those voters in Quebec who voted for the Bloc, by saying that the Liberal-NDP-Bloc coalition is an unholy, treasonous one, and the Tories will protect Canada by never signing an agreement giving the Bloc a veto.

2. The Tory government will present a budget to deal with the stimulus, and the burden is on the Liberals and NDP to make parliament work by giving input into the Tory budget, for Harper to consider.

3. If the next Tory budget includes many of the suggestions of the Coalition, then the Coalition should vote for the Tory budget or they will be the bad guys.

4. The Coalition is dead, and the Liberals should take steps to replace Dion, whom Canadians voted against at the last election.

Take note of what this framing means.

Listen to the CBC, CTV, and the press: they have bought into Frames 3 & 4 and are hammering Liberals on what steps should be taken to replace Dion pronto, how much dissension there is in the LPC, how Ignatieff is saying nothing because he regards the Coalition as a ‘poisoned chalice’ and hopes for it to die.

Take note of how relatively little is being said about Harper’s attack on the rights of the Bloc to enter into coalitions, and the Tories implicit classification of voters into First Class (all those other than those who voted for the Bloc), and Second Class (all those who voted for the Bloc).

Notice how the Tory frame has shifted the discussion from the fact that Harper did nothing in his economic statement to offer proactive hope and help to Canadians and companies, to the obligation now suddenly resting on Liberals and NDP to give Harper suggestions for his next budget. Notice the shifting of guilt from the do-nothing Tories, to the Liberals and NDP: we should all make parliament work; now you give us ideas for us to consider.

Notice how little is being said about the precedents the Governor General is to obey if a government is voted down in January, and about how unlikely it will be that the GG will grant a second prorogation to avoid this happening. The Tory angle – being repeated unthinkingly, like bleating sheep, by the media, is that if the next budget is voted down, then the GG would allow an election.

They are using this prospect of an election early next year to try to scare the Liberals (how can you fight an election with Dion still as leader? So perhaps you should change your leader now?), and to drive a wedge between (remember how the Republicans used wedge issues) the Coalition (will you be running in that election as the NDP or as the coalition party?)

Amazingly adroit, and all done in two days.

So, what do we do?

First, we re-read George Lakoff’s Don’t Think of an Elephant, to refresh ourselves on the basic strategies of political framing. Send your MP a copy for Christmas. Better still, highlight a few passages and draw his or her attention to it. Perhaps some blogger might want to run a series of blogs setting out in simple words what Lakoff means by framing …?

Second, the Coalition must come up with its own framing, make sure that it is written down in talking notes, and spread those talking notes to all MPs, all party members, and then use them, constantly, relentlessly.

If the Tories or the media raise the Tory framing, say you disagree, that the real issues is …then go on with our framing.

What types of framing could the Coalition come up with?

I suggest we forget about the prorogation of parliament. That is water under the bridge.

However, the big issue is the next set of votes in January. The Coalition must prepare now to vote the Tory government out, and then to approach the Governor General to ask for the right to form a Coalition government, along the lines of the Accord.

My suggestions for framing by the Coalition for your consideration are:

1. Trust: Frame the next confidence vote (and indeed all future votes in parliament) as one of trust as much as anything else. The Coaltion and Bloc MPs are perfectly entitled to vote the Tory government out of power if they no longer trust Harper and his party. Use examples of past breaches of trust each time, to reinforce this. Frame the issue of whether the LPC or NDP or Bloc will vote for the Tory budget as one of trust: even if he promises to jump over the moon in January in order to save his skin, how can MPs trust Harper after what he has done (prorogued parliament to avoid the vote of confidence; tried to remove union rights; tried to remove pay equity rights of women; tried to bankrupt the opposition etc.) Canadian voters have denied Harper a majority because many do not trust him; many also fear what he would do if he had a majority. His Economic Statement is a prime example of Harper’s real but hidden agenda.

2. Contrast: Frame the choice next January as a choice between a regressive, backward looking, mean-spirited Conservative ideology and a progressive government, with progressive ideas. This means the issue is not just the next Tory budget, but all aspects of government. Then spell out the differences, with the progressive values cast as positives for ordinary Canadians.

3. Action versus Inaction: Frame the Coalition as a government in waiting which will take steps to take care of ordinary Canadians. Contrast this with the sluggishness of the Tories, with how they had to be forced to take steps, with how the reason there is another budget in January is because they did nothing this year, with how their very basic philosophy compels them to let the market solve problems, and to reduce government to a minimal one, playing no significant role in the economy. Contrast this with the proactive role of the activist government which the Coalition government will be, as shown by the Coalition Accord. And above all, spell out a timetable showing Canadians what the Coalition will be doing, by whom the steps will be taken, and when, over the next 7 weeks, to put flesh on the Accord, prepare the Coalition budget and be ready to assume power and hit the road running when the Coalition forms the next government.

4. Governor General: Frame the decision by the GG to appoint the Coalition as the next government early next year after the government is defeated, rather than call for an election so soon after the last one, as consistent with precedent and correct. Then marshall the legal opinions which support this and make sure the media get copies, arrange for the experts to talk to the media, and reduce them to talking points for Liberals, NDP and Bloc members and MPs. This is the answer to the Tory framing of the next election coming soon.

5. Budget: The Tory government should come up with its own budget. The Coalition should work on its own budget, fleshing it out and putting numbers in, even if in a range, and spelling out what actions will be taken as part of the significant Coalition stimulus package. Read my earlier posts on this subject.

Having a positive, well thought out, practical framing of the issues will help the Coalition gain power early next year and usher in some welcome progressive government.

Remember: it is a numbers game now, and Harper does not have as many MPs as the Coalition and Bloc together have. Harper is on the ropes now, and has run out of options.