Modeling Journey

Barbara Yaffe ends the year of 2007 with her column today about political challenges in 2008. She describes Bob Rae as a "cunning politician", and touches on one area which could be a huge political bonanza for the Liberals, and another which still poses problems for the LPC.

First, about Rae's political cunning:

" Which means Canadians will be charged with choosing new MPs either next spring or fall.

That, of course, is bound to clarify the situation for the beleaguered Grit leader. Worthy and earnest as Dion is, if he cannot catch a wave in coming months, he is likely to surf right into oblivion.

And in the coming year his most significant rival may prove to be, not deputy leader Michael Ignatieff, but Bob Rae. The one-time NDP leader, by 2008, will be more welcome within the Liberal ranks. And, as an orator, as a cunning politician, as an endearing sort, Rae has it over Ignatieff."

Then she talks of the issue with is ripe for the Liberals to use:

" Domestically, Ontario is well positioned to keep peddling the message in 2008 that it has become the piñata of Confederation.

Prospects are excellent for continuation of a major fuss over federal legislation that will shortchange Ontario by 20 seats as part of a shift of MP numbers in the Commons.

That issue, and pressure on Ontario's manufacturing sector, resulting from a strengthened loonie, will enable Ontario to cry poor with some legitimacy."

Yaffe is right: Ontario is a blind spot in the mirror of PM Harper, probably because he has never spent enough time in a big city to understand big city dynamics. His policies towards Ontario and the big cities of Canada are of death-wishian magnitude.

He and his fellow right wing "new" Tories just don't get that province, or big cities.

And that opens a big hole for the Liberals in the next election, if they are prepared to pounce on this issue and ride it all the way to a majority government.

But it will take more than simply admonishing the Tories for their bias; it will be necessary for the Liberals to offer Ontarians an alternative which means most Ontarian voters will choose the Liberal policy rather than the Tory one.

Liberals will have to spell out exactly what they want with respect to Parliamentary reform, and how this will benefit Ontario (fairness benefits that province), and affect the rest of the country.

Finally, the weakest spot in Liberal policies:

" The one confederation constant in 2008, of course, will be a continued attempt to appease Quebec."

http://www.canada.com/vancouversun/columnists/story.html?id=e4500ee9-6300-4201-b645-906d23f9eadb

It is in this area particularly that the Liberal Party as a whole - and not just Bob Rae - will need the utmost "political cunning". Despite having a leader from Quebec, the Liberal Party has no discernible traction in that province, and seems locked into a small Anglophone ghetto, with the mainstream Francophone constituency simply ignoring it.

The Liberals can form a government even with limited support from Quebec, but it is not politically healthy to have such poor drawing power in such a large province.