Layton joined with the Bloc and Tories to bring down the Liberal government of Paul Martin, hoping to gain more seats for the NDP (which he did), and a position of power (the balance) in Parliament (which he almost has now).
Today, it is within Layton's power to bring down the Tory minority government by triggering an election.
If things work out, the Dippers could hold on to their seats, and perhaps, depending on the results of the election, hold a stronger position in Parliament by having the balance of power with a minority government (either Tory or Liberal). Certainly, an election now seems to be Jack's wish, given where the Tories are taking the country.
So, how does Layton bring the government down?
He plays hardball, tit-for-tat hardball.
The Liberals fashioned an amendment to the Throne Speech which they believe the NDP cannot support. When it fails, the Liberal plan is to abstain from the Tory Throne Speech vote, and the Tory government lives on.
Some commentators (ScottsDiatribe amongst others) have floated an idea, which Layton could use.
All Layton has to do is to reason this way:
- The LPC set up a trap for the NDP with the Liberal amendment, so that they can abstain and preserve the Tory government.
- It is better for Canada for the Tory government to fall and a new election to be held now.
- Therefore, the end (the fall of the Tory government) justifies the means.
- The NDP could therefore vote in favour of the Liberal amendment. If the Bloc votes in favour of it as well, the Liberals will have to support their own amendment (of be written off as the Keystone Cops of Canadian politics). The combined votes of all three opposition parties will then pass the amendments.
- Harper will then have a choice - either call an election, or put the amended Throne Speech to the vote, and live with the Liberals amendment.
- It is unlikely that Harper would accept living with the Liberal amendments - his whole pattern of behaviour to date indicates he would not (witness his reaction to the criminal law bill which the opposition amended).
- Therefore, the chances are high Harper would call an election.
What is in it for the NDP? Their strategic voting on the Liberal amendment to the Throne Speech would not bind them thereafter; and they could justify voting for it because it is the best way to rid the country of the Tory government before it harms the country more than it has. They would have used the Liberal amendment against the Liberals, and would have triggered the election they sought.
Of course, the same is true for the Bloc. They are voting against the Throne Speech because it does not meet their terms, and they want an election now before they implode in Quebec and the Tories pick up the pieces. So the Bloc should also support the Liberal amendment to the Throne Speech....
And then all hell will break loose, as we head in for a fall election.
Does Jack Layton possess the courage to make such a call? To turn a weapon aimed at him, against those holding it?
We shall see.
