Modeling Journey

The Globe & Mail is speculating that Harper will run on a constitutional change which will restrict the right of the federal government to spend money in the jurisdiction of a province. They speculate that Harper would introduce a one-subject constitutional change, to avoid having the constitution opened up to other matters.

G&M also say this would put Dion in a quandry, and risk him splitting the Liberal Party.

Why? Because, says the G&M:

"On a grander scale, Mr. Harper is said to be considering the idea of putting constitutional limitations on Ottawa's spending power as part of resolving the fiscal imbalance -- an initiative that, presumably, would be accompanied by tax cuts flowing from Ottawa's scaling back its activities. This would present Mr. Dion with a difficult choice. Mr. Dion's rival for lefty votes outside Quebec, Jack Layton, would howl at any proposed limitations on the federal spending power. But Mr. Dion already has a record in limiting Ottawa's spending power (1999's Social Union agreement with the provinces went even beyond the Meech Lake accord in this respect). And he has a history of championing constitutional amendments: He pushed for recognition of Quebec as a distinct society even after Meech Lake failed, and he was the driving force in two successful amendments dealing with education in Quebec and Newfoundland. If Mr. Harper were to bring forward a constitutional resolution, Mr. Dion would have to choose between competing with the NDP for votes on the left outside Quebec and siding with mainstream public opinion inside his home province. Should he choose the latter, he would risk a split within his own party."

The G&M are right about the splitting of the LPC if Dion for a moment thought of backing such a Harper move.

The centre of gravity of the Liberal Party is in supporting a strong federal government, and fighting anything which might limit the power of the Canadian government from ensuring national programs are used in the interests of all Canadians.

For Dion to support Harper's proposal on this issue would be a massive sellout of Liberal values, and would indeed split the party right down the middle.