Modeling Journey

Now that he was elected leader on a platform of renewal (pushed over the top by the premier renewal candidate, Kennedy), Dion has to decide how fast he goes in implementing party renewal. The risk he runs is that delay will lead many who supported him or participated in the selection of delegates and the convention to conclude that it is "business as usual", and that neither he nor Kennedy are prepared to walk the talk.

Some interesting observations on the dilemma facing Dion and Kennedy are contained in an article headed Seeking and keeping the hot seat: Party leadership successors in comparative perspective, written by Frederik Bynander and Paul 't Hart .
(The article may be found by googling the title or at http://polsc.anu.edu.au/staff/hart/pubs/successor_200606.pdf)

Some quotes from the article for Liberals to consider:

"Reform-inclined incumbents have to decide whether to pursue a crash through approach, i.e. launch major proposals for change early on, while they are still 'fresh' and in their 'honeymoon' period; or to tread gently at first and delay the internal battle until they are well entrenched as leader and after having been able to promote their supporters into pivotal positions within the party; or not to go for a single major reform at all but to pursue an incremental, long-term strategy."

"These judgment calls not only depend on new incumbents' personal style and risk-taking inclinations, but also on their more or less objectifiable strength within their party-- as indicated by the margin with which they were voted in or the known level of support among the former leader and the other key internal power brokers -- and their potential polling strength at the time. "

...

"Our dataset shows that new party leaders have tended not to be revolutionaries. In general, the number of successors that comes to office with an avowed commitment to transforming the party is limited: not even 10% in our sample, and usually precipitated by extraordinary electoral losses or the unexpected loss of long-held government rule. "

...

"But notwithstanding the lack of concrete moves towards internal party democratisation with regard to leader selection procedures, one may plausibly wonder to which extent this premium on continuity and not rocking the boat will remain the dominant imperative.... Contemporary electoral markets are much more volatile than they used to be .... In the West volatility results from accelerating social and cultural changes, which put even highly established parties at risk of plunging into big depths in no time.... Western political parties now are much more under pressure to reinvent themselves than they were a few decades ago... "

"One way or another, many parties have had to reconsider their programmatic and organizational legacies in order to stay in the game. This has increased both the political momentum and the tactical possibilities for new party leaders to adopt a self-consciously reformist posture. Hence it is much more likely for contemporary than for early post-war leader-elects to be chosen on a platform of party innovation or to reveal reform ambitions shortly after being elected.... If they don't, and if their party has enjoyed meagre electoral fortunes in the most recent past, they are not likely to stay in power long, because they are unlikely to improve those fortunes. "

"In our dataset, the rapid turnover of Australian Labor leaders Australia since Paul Keating?s 1996 departure, and of British Conservative leaders since Blair?s 1997 landslide against Major, illustrates the point clearly: none of the people holding the opposition party leader's role succeeded in developing a clear, cogent and appealing new platform upon which the 're-branding' of the party could be footed."


So, Messrs Dion and Kennedy: how soon can we expect meaningful steps towards the renewal of the Liberal Party, starting with:

- the election of the leader (our current system is clearly not democratic enough, see Red Tory's blog for some concise comments);

- the selection of candidates as aspirant MPs (which is clearly broken, because the current instant party members and bused in voting sheep is a travesty);

- achieving a balance between male and female party officials;

- making sure we select, within a very short period, 50% women as candidates, in good ridings, so that the Liberals in the House are fairly balanced;

- changing the decision on policies so that members of the Party may have greater input on the direction of the party;

- changing the behaviour of Liberal MPs (to stop the buffoonery which now gives Parliament a bad name).

Have I missed any starting items? The last thing we need is another batch of Liberal promises, made but not delivered upon. So let's get cracking.