|
|---|
Saturday, 13 September 2008
Campaign Update Week 1 - Newmarket-Aurora
The campaign federally has gone well despite a few bumps early on. Polls show a gain in momentum for the Conservative Party and that is because Stephen Harper has played to his strengths, ran on his record and used the strong party organization to his advantage early in this campaign. There are three major issues right now. Leadership, the economy and the carbon tax. Harper is on the right side of all of those issues and it seems the Liberal campaign is falling apart under Dion's leadership. Right now a lot of Liberals are talking about who will be the next leader of the party and this has become the focus in the media. As polls increase, seats in Northern Ontario, the GTA, Quebec, B.C. and elsewhere become winnable. Newmarket-Aurora is of course one of those seats. The NDP is gaining strength. They are polling even with the Liberals and challenging for official opposition status. The Greens have had a good week. They are now in the debates and the media is giving them equal coverage to the other parties. They are seen as mainstream and are running in 307 ridings. Together the left is split with Harper taking more and more from the middle of the spectrum. Harper has had a great week as he is opening up a major lead in popular vote, leadership and on the majority of issues according to polls in the media. He is relaxed and showing his personal side more on the campaign trail. He is seen as a steady hand while everyone else seems like a risky option. It is looking like a majority or minority government is almost certain at this point unless we defeat ourselves in the next 30 days. As Harper and the Conservative Party continue to do well nationally, the better our chances to take back this riding federally with the same vote that elected Frank Klees here provincially in October 2007. Thanksgiving weekend is coming fast and Dion and the Liberals have a lot of ground to make up in a 5 week period of time.
The Toronto Star had this to say about the race in Newmarket-Aurora as one of it's Ontario ridings to watch:
"How will Finance Minister James Flaherty perform in a knock-down, drag-out fight in Whitby-Oshawa? The Liberals are nominating Brent Fullard, who has led the fight against Flaherty's decision to tax income trusts after the party had promised not to. Fullard has also worked for General Motors in Oshawa, which is struggling through the manufacturing downturn in Ontario. Newmarket-Aurora, outgoing Liberal Belinda Stronach's riding, will also be fascinating, maybe even bellwether. She first won it as a Conservative, before joining Paul Martin's Liberals. And, despite her personal wealth and profile, she won by less than 5,000 votes last time. If Harper nibbles toward Toronto proper, her riding will be one of the first morsels. In southwestern Ontario, a key battleground in these gloomy economic times, Cambridge is shaping up as a nail-biter. The incumbent Tory, second-termer Gary Goodyear, has gone through some tough scrapes in Parliament. Manufacturing accounts for 20 per cent of jobs. The fact that four Liberals battled it out for the nomination, and that was last November, may be a clue. Former Conservative, now Liberal, Garth Turner has a fight on his hands in Halton, where Tory party bosses upset the locals by installing the head of Toronto's port authority, Lisa Raitt, as their star candidate."
More info about our riding can be found here.
In Newmarket-Aurora we have had a great week. Our sign team has been committed since teh writ was dropped and today was no different. We have over a thousand residential sign locations in the riding and in my home town Newmarket looks like Alberta right now outnumbering the Liberals 20-1 in signs on people's homes. Aurora is about 10-1 in residential properties and the entire riding is at least 3-1 in public large sign locations. The blue stakes have also had a nice impact. This was all possible because of a large team of volunteers who are working tirelessly giving up their weekends, evenings or days to get Lois and the Conservative Party elected. It is also because requests are coming in like crazy demonstrating popular support among regular voters. Signs are not necessarily a reflection of voting intentions but it does say something about our campaign and what is happening with popular opinion within Newmarket-Aurora.
For almost two years, Lois has been out knocking on doors and attending community events. This has not changed during the campaign and she has been working hard to earn votes every day. Lois is like the Energizer bunny and that motivates us because we know how hard she will work for the people of Newmarket and Aurora should she be fortunate enough to go to Ottawa. She has been open and friendly with the media as you will see on the CBC and have already seen in the local media. “I’ll be more media friendly. That was something I was not relaxed with and it showed through. I know I need to be forthcoming,” Lois was quoted in the Era Banner this week. Lois also launched her website http://www.loisbrown.ca this week and her Facebook group got 10 new members today surpassing the Tim Jones group. The official campaign launch and the opening of our second office in Aurora is coming soon. Our weekend canvass and sign blitzes are going well. New volunteers are coming in every day while are strong base and experienced veterans are engaged and motivated.
On Wednesday we started preparation for the debates and from what I saw, Lois has come a long way from the 2006 campaign. She is very prepared on policy and will be ready as the Newmarket, Aurora and Rogers televisions debates take place in the weeks ahead. Lois was very impressive on Wednesday night and we threw everything at her making it as tough as possible so that she could be properly prepared for whatever questions come up from the real debates and the partisan planted audience representing all sides. Lois is the only female in this contest as we now know Mike Seaward is going to be representing the NDP. Glenn Hubbers is the Green Party candidate, Tim Jones is the Liberal candidate and Dorian Baxter will be in this race representing the Progressive Canadian Party. There will likely be a few other fringe candidates who jump into the race as well.
As part of my assignment with the CBC, I can also tell you that momentum is moving throughout York Region. North of me in York Simcoe, Peter Van Loan is in a very strong position to be re-elected in what is considered by most as a safe Conservative riding. He is a major player in cabinet and has done a good job of representing his constituents. Newmarket-Aurora, Oakridge- Markham and Thornhill could go either way depending on how the rest of this race shapes up. I attended Peter Kent's campaign launch and was impressed with their large base of volunteers and how well received his speech was. If he gets elected he will be a huge asset to York Region and the Conservative caucus. Stephen Harper has spent a lot of time in the GTA in the last few weeks and I believe it is having an impact in those crucial 905 area ridings around Toronto.
Right now I feel very fortunate to volunteer along side an experienced campaign team for a candidate, leader and party we all feel enthusiastic and motivated to support. Get out the vote, media relations and the debates will be crucial along with the remainder of the national campaign over the next 30 days. After week one though, we are off to a good start. So far it has been a very fun campaign to play a role in. I have got confidence we are on the right track to getting Lois elected MP for Newmarket-Aurora.
-Darryl
Williams threatening Conservative supporters in Newfoundland?
It is time for Danny Williams to check his ego and desire for the spotlight at the door. This man is putting a personal feud ahead of the interests of his province. The carbon tax will bring Newfoundland back to have not status. The situation Williams is creating is not good for future relations between the likely Prime Minister and Premier of Newfoundland. He might be hurting Conservatives in Newfoundland but in the rest of the country he has zero credibility. This story is extremely disturbing and not consistent with democracy. I think Williams is causing his province far more harm than good right now.
-Darryl
Jack Layton leader of the opposition????
I am trying not to post too many of these polls because it is not worth getting too excited or down as they come in. At this point we need to run a disciplined campaign right until October 14. There is no room for mistakes and as we have seen in the past, it is the last week that really matters and the biggest poll of all is on the election day. Having said that, on this one I couldn't resist. Quickly this is becoming a race for second place. The carbon tax has fallen flat and Dion has proven to be a major mistake and disaster as leader. The verdict is still out on if this will be a majority or minority, but a new story is developing...the race for leader of the opposition. Jack Obama, I mean Layton is pulling even with the Liberals and Stephane Dion. Could the NDP form the official opposition? Will this vote split result in Conservative wins in some key areas? Jack Layton has consistently polled better than Dion on leadership numbers. At this point anything is possible but it is obvious that the Liberal vote is quickly collapsing. By the way this poll doesn't come from the National Post...it comes from the Toronto Star the most Liberal friendly paper in the country. I suspect Jack Layton might gain some more ground from Dion in the national debates when he has the opportunity to hold the Liberal party to account for sitting on their hands during confidence votes in the last election. Toronto area ridings should think long and hard about how they vote this time.
-Darryl
Richard Brennan
OTTAWA BUREAU
The polls are starting to reveal a new race this federal election – for second place.
The strength of NDP Leader Jack Layton leadership numbers seem to be pulling the party up while Liberal Leader Stephane Dion’s seemed to be dragging his party down.
An Angus Reid/Toronto Star poll published today put the Conservatives at 39 per cent, the Liberals, 23 per cent and the New Democrats, 18 per cent.
And according the latest numbers from Angus Reid, 32 per cent of Canadians believe that Conservative Leader Stephen Harper would make the best prime minister, 23 per cent for Layton and 15 per cent for Dion.
Could Layton be the leader of Her Majesty’s loyal opposition?
Behind the scenes the New Democrats are giddy with the thought of beating the Liberal out for second spot for the first time, but publicly Layton keeps on the same message that he’s running to replace Harper.
“I am interested in offering Canadians a choice for prime minister,” he told reporters.
“Let me tell you my friends, something is happening out there,” Layton told a lively rally at the CNE yesterday with almost 500 of the party faithful cheering on the mustachioed leader.
“The choice in this election is crystal clear. Stephen Harper of Jack Layton.”
Layton concedes that the Liberal Party's demise and voters’ apprehension with Harper’s government is a winning combination that could cast the New Democratic Party as a legitimate alternative to the old guard this time around.
“We are on the move. We have seen this before where real change emerges as a possibility,” Layton told reporters.
http://www.thestar.com/FederalElection/article/498968
Canadian version of Obama Girl..."I have got a crush on Harper"
Now we just need the video part...this is pretty funny!!!! Credit: mashline.com
-Darryl
Original version...Obama Girl
Made my CBC debut last night
If anyone saw the show last night, feedback is always appreciated. Also if there is anything you would like to see me film as part of our campaign in Newmarket-Aurora; please don't hesitate to make a suggestion in the comment section. This "Your Vote" segment will air every Friday on the national with my segment on October 10, just four days before the election.
-Darryl
Friday, 12 September 2008
Dion is saying too much about too many things on the stump.
He is getting media attention for it, but at a cost: his message is scattered.
What Dion needs is an attack dog or two (Rae? Hall-Findlay? Ignatieff?) whose job is to bark at the non-message matters, while Dion focuses on his message.
Time to take a hard look at the tight shop which Schmidt is running for McCain down south: a rapid response team, with responses zipping out within minutes, via email, personal appearances, you name it. It is proving very effective at message control, and gaining media attention. And it keeps the focus on the McCain election frames ...
And while he goes about it, Dion might broaden the frames he is using for his main message beyond the Green Shift ...
In the Cat’s view, Canada is a Mommy country, and the Liberal Party is the Mommy party, and so Canada really needs the Liberals to run the government.
The Tories under Harper are definitely the Daddy party, and so their basic value systems are not consistent with the Mommy-country Canada.
Yes, I know that Harper has launched TV ads showing him as a warm and fuzzy kind of guy, dressed in sweaters and talking about how he relates to his kids. But let’s face it, even if you dressed Harper in a tutu and slapped lipstick on him, he would not come across as a Mommy figure!
What about Jack Layton?
Poor Jack.
The Cat sees him as a wannabee Daddy figure, who has the misfortune of leading a gender-confused party. The NDP used to be a Mommy party, but under Jack it has become more militant and strident, and is morphing into a Daddy-like kind of party. Sort of. Maybe. Perhaps. Depends on which day it is ...
As for the Greens?
A variant of the Mommy party. A bit like a slightly dotty aunt, who is fixated on one thing and one thing only: the little green elves hiding at the bottom of the garden.
To find out a bit more about Mommy and Daddy parties, read the following by George (Don’t Think of an Elephant) Lakoff:
“Well, the progressive worldview is modeled on a nurturant parent family. Briefly, it assumes that the world is basically good and can be made better and that one must work toward that. Children are born good; parents can make them better. Nurturing involves empathy, and the responsibility to take care of oneself and others for whom we are responsible. On a larger scale, specific policies follow, such as governmental protection in form of a social safety net and government regulation, universal education (to ensure competence, fairness), civil liberties and equal treatment (fairness and freedom), accountability (derived from trust), public service (from responsibility), open government (from open communication), and the promotion of an economy that benefits all and functions to promote these values, which are traditional progressive values in American politics.
The conservative worldview, the strict father model, assumes that the world is dangerous and difficult and that children are born bad and must be made good. The strict father is the moral authority who supports and defends the family, tells his wife what to do, and teaches his kids right from wrong. The only way to do that is through painful discipline - physical punishment that by adulthood will become internal discipline. The good people are the disciplined people. Once grown, the self-reliant, disciplined children are on their own. Those children who remain dependent (who were spoiled, overly willful, or recalcitrant) should be forced to undergo further discipline or be cut free with no support to face the discipline of the outside world.
So, project this onto the nation and you see that to the right wing, the good citizens are the disciplined ones - those who have already become wealthy or at least self-reliant - and those who are on the way. Social programs, meanwhile, "spoil" people by giving them things they haven't earned and keeping them dependent. The government is there only to protect the nation, maintain order, administer justice (punishment), and to provide for the promotion and orderly conduct of business. In this way, disciplined people become self-reliant. Wealth is a measure of discipline. Taxes beyond the minimum needed for such government take away from the good, disciplined people rewards that they have earned and spend it on those who have not earned it.”
http://www.berkeley.edu/news/media/releases/2003/10/27_lakoff.shtml
PS Stephane Dion: If you want to figure out how to Frame issues in this election, just read the extract above from Lakoff, and focus on some of the issues he talks about. Maybe then you might be able to come up with some Frames which will dominate the remainder of the election cycle ...
