Modeling Journey

My Reflections on the American and Canadian elections and the future under this new political landscape

October 14 Canadians went to the polls and November 4 Americans went to the polls and at the end of the day Stephen Harper of the Conservative Party and Barack Obama of the Democratic Party were easily elected to office in their respective countries.

Stephen Harper has a stronger minority at 143 seats and a stronger cabinet because of the increased talent pool. Following the Conservative convention in Winnipeg, Parliament will return on November 18.

Barack Obama will likely name an all-star cabinet with names like Colin Powell, Chuck Hagel, Arnold Schwarzenegger, John McCain, Michael Bloomberg, Warren Buffet, Hillary Clinton, Bill Richardson, Caroline Kennedy, Al Gore and John Kerry mentioned as possibilities. His transition is taking place right now and he will be sworn in January 20, 2009.

Both leaders have now won the prize of an economy heading for recession, a war in Afghanistan and international pressure to do something about the environment. Both leaders must now face the same issues such as how to deal with China, Russia and Pakistan. There are wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. The Israel and Palestine conflict remains an ongoing issue. Threats of nuclear proliferation and terrorism still exist. There are emerging economies such as India and Brazil that offer both opportunity and threats to Western economies. Genocide is going on in Sudan and Congo. Even within the Americas, we have issues with Haiti, Cuba and Venezuela. Today the world is a small place and we are all integrated together as part of the global economy. As we have seen from the US financial crisis, what happens South of the border can have a huge impact in Canada and around the world.

The economy will be priority one and a new era has likely arrived in the international fight against climate change. Kyoto is dead and Obama will attempt to lead the world towards a new agreement once he becomes president. Healthcare will be interesting with Stephen Harper supporting universal healthcare in Canada while Barack Obama tries to bring universal healthcare to America. Already we have seen the Conservative government reach out to Barack Obama by proposing solutions on the environment file in a way that acknowledges the current state of the economy. Stephen Harper stuck to his principles that he would not sign an international climate change treaty that did not include the United States and other major polluters. Obama has set ambitious domestic targets and will want to show global leadership on the issue. This is Stephen Harper’s chance to act as a bridge between Europe and America while demonstrating that Canada too has a big role to play. NAFTA may come up as an issue, but Canada has signaled it will play the energy card in negotiations and could also open up the issue of fresh water. Issues with NAFTA from the perspective of the Americans could have more to do with Mexico such as labour and environmental standards as oppose to Canada where those standards are already in place. Obama has also promised to become energy independent from the Middle East and Hugo Chavez. To reach that goal, Canadian oil will be necessary. Together a strengthened Conservative Party in Canada will have to work with a strengthened Democratic Party in the United States. Both the Conservative Party and Democratic Party seem to want to show that they are moving closer to the centre. In Canada Conservatives are moving from the right while Democrats are doing the same from the left. There is every reason to believe right now that both Obama and Harper should be re-elected, but in politics things turn on a dime. Expect these two leaders to have good relations as both have an interest in a strong relationship between Canada and the United States as well as overall prosperity in North America.

Ironically the opposition parties in the United States and Canada have a lot in common right now as well. Neither the Republicans nor the Liberals have a leader and in both cases all of the frontrunners have some major baggage. Both the Republicans and the Liberals are having trouble fundraising while facing opponents who are earning a huge advantage with small donations from a high volume of people. The Liberals and Republicans have not found away to use the internet to their advantage at this point. Both the Liberals and Republicans are not national parties on the political map following the most recent elections and have shrunk to their very core base. Both have a sense of entitlement to power, offer out of touch platforms, lack principle and have a history of corruption and scandal during their time in power. Stephen Harper in 2006 and Barack Obama in 2008 were both elected on platforms of change and will now govern. Liberals and Republicans must change internally before they offer a credible government in waiting alternative to Conservatives and Democrats. Liberals will fight amongst themselves as Ignatieff and Rae divide the party. Republicans will have the same battles between those who Sarah Palin and others who would like to see anyone else. In both cases leadership is only a small part of the overall problems with these parties. Taking responsibility for losing and doing what it takes to win again is what really matters. Liberals blame CTV while Republicans point the finger at CNN. Building membership, picking a new leader, coming up with an appealing platform, improving fundraising and putting together a campaign machine is easier said then done. Both Liberals and Republicans have neglected the grassroots. The rebuilding process is more likely to take years not months. I predict both Republicans and Liberals will likely not have their acts together by the time the next election occurs and will face opponents that likely will have strong records to run on. For Liberals it will be difficult to watch Harper perform where he performs best on the world stage as a statesman. Every meeting between Obama and Harper will be a reminder to both Liberals and Republicans that they lack relevance and are not in power.

In the United States, this election is historic because Barack Obama is now the first African American elected president, young people voted in huge numbers creating generational change and two women in both the Republican and Democratic parties played crucial roles in the 2008 presidential race. Obama’s honeymoon will be short and domestic issues will be pressing. Americans want health care. Social security is becoming a major issue. The deficit and increasing debt threatens inflation. Consumer confidence, credit availability, employment, GDP growth, housing prices and individual savings are all going down. Manufacturing jobs are being outsourced to China and elsewhere and America is running a huge trade deficit. There will be pressure for protectionism. He must find away to get the troops out of Iraq both safely and responsibly as promised. Guantanamo Bay will be shut down as promised. Finally Obama has promised energy independence, action on the environment, tax cuts for the Middle Class and Canadian style healthcare. That will be tough to achieve in his first term. He has also promised to go after Bin Laden and add significant troops to win the war in Afghanistan. He will need allies and Canada with Stephen Harper as leader will be his most reliable ally. Even among America’s enemies and rivals such as Castro, Chavez, Kim Jong Il, Dmitri Medvedev, Hu Jintao and Ahmadinejad; reaction thus far has been positive to Obama’s victory. Already it looks like Obama has healed some of the American image lost under George W. Bush. Obama will bring change to American policy on many issues that will impact Canada. His election victory will give Stephen Harper an opportunity improve his image as a moderate and portray his party as being close to the center.

In Canada the agenda will likely be continuing the course of the last two years. Dept repayment and tax cuts if there is a surplus. Controlled spending. Balanced budgets. Tough on crime stance. Leadership on the world stage. A focus on native land claims. Working towards a climate change agreement that includes China, India and the United States. Limited interference in provincial and municipal jurisdictions. Expanding free trade agreements. Managing the mission in Afghanistan until 2011. A focus on families and Canadians who work hard and play by the rules. Attempts at democratic reform including the Senate. Dealing with needs in healthcare, infrastructure and poverty reduction. Harper was largely elected to maintain the status quo during these uncertain times. Obama is more likely to find a friend who is pro-American as oppose to a rival that is pro-Bush or Republican leaning. With Obama enjoying the support of 75% of Canadians, Stephen Harper is likely to benefit from Obama's popularity as the two are seen together engaged in heavily staged press conferences and photo ops on the world stage and during visits. He is unlikely to make time for Liberal leadership contenders should he make a Canadian visit early in his presidency. Obama may face filibusters in the senate as he failed to get an absolute majority of 60 seats. Harper must deal with a minority government and the reality that an election can occur at any time.

At the end of the day the election of Barack Obama helps Conservatives and Stephen Harper. We can now get something done without the opposition parties or media accusing us of being too close to George W. Bush. Any photo ops between Obama and Harper will look great in election brochures and television advertisements down the road. Liberals should resist the temptation, get caught up in the moment and try and rip off Obama as a quick fix. Once the hype wears off, he will face serious challenges and have real decisions to make. He may not be as popular tomorrow as he is today. On top of that Liberals already jumped on the green trend after Elizabeth May’s second place showing in London. The result of that decision was Stephane Dion and electoral disaster. Liberals shouldn’t make the same mistake twice. The Star also had a good article taking a closer look at Obama’s positions on Kyoto, gay marriage and other issues. Their conclusion was that if Obama was involved in Canadian politics, he would barely qualify as a red tory. In terms of the Obama campaign, all parties could learn from it and implement some of the strategies, especially those used online in future elections. What Obama brings is change and a new reality to international and American politics. On November 18, the Conservative Party and Stephen Harper will set out a vision for governing in this new political climate with a speech from the throne that will be an automatic confidence vote.

Yes we can to free trade. Yes we can to great relations between Canada and the United States. Yes we can to victory with our NATO partners in Afghanistan. Yes we can to tax cuts for the middle class. Yes we can on the environment. Yes we Can on the arctic. Yes we Can to turning around this economy. Yes we can to tough diplomacy with our enemies. Yes we can to facing tough challenges that are not yet evident. Yes we Can to the best possible relations between Stephen Harper and Barack Obama for their mutual benefit. President Obama and Prime Minister Harper have a lot of mutual challenges that must be worked on together. I have no doubt that both have the leadership qualities to guide their nations through these difficult times. Barack Obama and Stephen Harper have far more in common than issues that divide them.

Thanks for reading...

Darryl

10 Things that will impact the US Election Outcome

Frankly, I think that by 8:00pm E.S.T. tonight, Barack Obama will be declared the next president of the United States of America. This will be confirmed or denied based on several factors that will determine the outcome of tonight's historic election.

1, Turnout among young, African American, Hispanic and Native voters. Traditionally all these groups do not vote in high numbers. Many are predicting this will change based on the candidacy of Barack Obama. If any of these groups turn out in large numbers, expect some surprises in states that went red in 2004. An influx of young and African American voters could in itself be enough to win the election for Obama tonight.

2, State of Ohio. McCain must win here. If he doesn't, it is difficult to see how mathmatically he can win enough electoral college votes to reach 270. Polls in Ohio will close fairly early tonight.

3, State of Pennsylvania. This is the only blue state that McCain has any chance of flipping that Kerry won in 2004. If McCain expects to lose in any of the states Bush won in 2004, he will need Pennsylvania to make up the difference.

4, The Palin influence and Conservative turnout. Say what you want about Sarah Palin, she has energized and motivated the conservative base for McCain. This vote must turn out. If too many McCain supporters look at the polls over the past five weeks, listen to the pundits and media, and come to the conclusion that their vote will not matter; McCain is in serious trouble. Having been on losing campaigns before, I can tell you it is tough to motivate your volunteers and supporters when you are in a situation like McCain finds himself in. Many have argued that sometimes polls hurt democracy. We could see this happen tonight.

5, Independent voters. As a maverick, McCain was very appealing to independent voters and moderate Democrats. With Sarah Palin as his running mate and in order to win the Republican nomination; McCain has been criticized by some for going to far to the right and alienating his independent support. Exit polls will likely show how independent voters cast their ballots. If this number goes heavy for Obama; it will be a bad sign for Republicans and for Palin's future.

6, Florida. If it votes in favor of Barack Obama, John McCain will lose.

7. Republican states Virginia, North Carolina, Missouri, Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa, Arizona, Indiana, North Dakota, Montana, and Nevada. If Obama wins in any of these states; McCain must make up the difference somewhere. McCain is playing defence. He needs the same victory as Bush in 2004. There is not much margin for error on any of these states. Polls show Obama competitive if not leading in virtually all of these states.

8, Turnout and its impact on Senate, Congress and Governor races. Republican Alaska Senator Ted Stevens could be in trouble as a result of a recent conviction. Elizabeth Dole is in trouble in North Carolina. If we see a surge in turnout for Obama, will those votes translate to other Democrats as well. The Democratic Party is likely to control the White House, Congress and Senate. High turnout for Obama in a state like North Carolina could result in a loss for Dole. If this happens elsewhere where Republican senators are in trouble, the magic 60 number could become realistic. 60 Senators would give Democrats a filibuster proof majority in the Senate.

9, Potential Obama victory speech. Will he try and reduce expectations for his presidency should he get elected tonight? There is serious concerns that Obama supporters, Democrats and the international community have set expectations for an Obama presidency that is not realistic. History will likely be made tonight and there will be a lot of hype and excitement. Given the fiscal crisis however, too high expectations could hurt his chances to get re-elected in the long term.

10, Republican concession speeches. Will Palin run in 2012? Will Republicans look to regroup and rebuild? What might be in McCain's plans for the future? How will Republicans react to the results. If Obama loses will he try again in 2012. What will Hillary say? What will be the fallout of an Obama loss, especially if there is a perception of voting irregularities? Who will be on the next president's transition team. What will tonight's results mean for the current President George W. Bush. There has been two years of build up for this election night. There has been little talk about what the potential impact will be tomorrow. International newspapers will also be interesting as they react to the results.

Overall, I stick to my original prediction of 378-160 for Obama tonight. I also think Obama will achieve over 50% of the vote with an unusually high turnout.

Thanks for reading...

Darryl

North Carolina Senate Race gets Nasty. Ad war over religion

And the media thought our ads on Dion were harsh. The senate race in North Carolina between Elizabeth Dole and Kay Hagan is going to be one of the closest in the United States. It could very well determine if Democrats achieve 60 seats in the Senate giving them a filibuster proof majority. Some of the media and of course Dion complained about Conservative ads against him. Liberals ran attack ads against us trying to link George Bush to Harper. As you can see from the ads below; our negative attack ads are very mild compared to what we see South of the border. Personally I believe that while everyone says they dislike negative advertising, ultimately it works. Of course if you go too far, it backfires big time. Not sure how these ads will impact the outcome on Tuesday, but they are quite interesting. Current polls show Democrat Kay Hagan with a slight lead in the race. Mixing religion and political campaigns could be risky. Any thoughts on these ads or negative ads in general?
-Darryl

Dole campaign ads:









Politics and Religion:





Kay Hagan Response Ads





Social Security Attack



Standard George Bush Ad for Democrats

Huffington Post picks up my comments on Sarah Palin's speech

To read the full article click here.
-Darryl

Back in Canada, Darryl Wolk, runs the headline: Sarah Palin was awesome! He adds:

After all the unfair media attacks, witch hunts in Alaska and criticism about her experience, Sarah Palin came out strong and confident yesterday, delivering the best speech at the Republican convention last night. I have to say she is impressive. Solid speaker (perhaps the female Obama on the teleprompter), ultra-Conservative and clearly a mom who puts family first. I think she has become a star and is a role model for females looking to enter politics. As a Conservative in Canada, I would love to see her hit the campaign trail with Harper for a couple days! Convention organizers for November should be trying to recruit her as the keynote speaker. I am still supporting Obama, but for the first time in this campaign, I think there is reason to get excited about the Republican ticket. Congratulations to Palin for delivering such a powerful and well executed speech under the circumstances she faced going into it. Awesome is all I have to say.

Obama responds to McCain's message of Change

Barack Obama compared his ideas of change with those of John McCain at a Townhall in Terra Haute, IN on September 6, 2008

Full John McCain Speech from Republican Convention:




Part 2



Part 3



Part 4



Part 5



Part 6

Sarah Palin was awesome!

After all the unfair media attacks, witch hunts in Alaska and criticism about her experience, Sarah Palin came out strong and confident yesterday, delivering the best speech at the Republican convention last night. I have to say she is impressive. Solid speaker (perhaps the female Obama on the teleprompter), ultra-Conservative and clearly a mom who puts family first. I think she has become a star and is a role model for females looking to enter politics. As a Conservative in Canada, I would love to see her hit the campaign trail with Harper for a couple days! Convention organizers for November should be trying to recruit her as the keynote speaker. I am still supporting Obama, but for the first time in this campaign, I think there is reason to get excited about the Republican ticket. Congratulations to Palin for delivering such a powerful and well executed speech under the circumstances she faced going into it. Awesome is all I have to say.
-Darryl




Part 2:



Part 3:



Part 4:

Romney, Huckabee and Rudy speeches from last night's Republican convention

I try and cover both sides...Sarah Palin had the best speech of the night.
-Darryl

Mitt Romney



Mike Huckabee Part 1 and 2





Rudy Giuliani Part 1,2 and 3

Ron Paul at the Rally for the Republic

It is too bad Republicans didn't select Ron Paul for leader...watch the full speech!
-Darryl

Part 1


Part 2



Part 3



Part 4



Part 5



Part 6



Part 7

Lieberman and Thompson speeches from last night's Republican Convention

Don't expect Lieberman to retain his chairmanship or ability to caucus with Democrats following the November election. For now his vote is required, down the road he will be turfed. Fairly decent speech though.
-Darryl



Fred Thompson delivers his best speech yet. Where was this speech when he was campaigning?
-Darryl

George W. Bush speaks at Republican National Convention

Remarks at the 2008 Republican National Convention

John McCain Announces Changes to the Republic Convention

My thoughts and prayers are with those impacted by Hurricane Gustav. I think McCain made the right decision.
-Darryl

Ron Paul Rally for the Republic Convention Info

In case you are in Minnesota and do not want to attend McCain's convention...

http://www.rallyfortherepublic.com/
http://www.campaignforliberty.com/


-Darryl

Rally for the Republic Official Schedule

Tuesday’s Rally for the Republic schedule:
11:30 - Doors open
12:30 - Intro: Tucker Carlson
12:40 - National Anthem: Matt Colvin
12:50 - Invocation: Barb Davis White
12:55 - Howard Phillips
1:10 - Doug Wead
1:30 - Tom Woods
1:50 - Grover Norquist
2:10 - Lew Rockwell
2:30 - Bill Kauffman
2:50 - Special Guest
3:10 - Bruce Fein
3:35 - Gov. Jesse Ventura
4:05 - John Tate‚ Campaign for Liberty Presentation
4:25 - Gov. Gary Johnson
5:00 - Aimee Allen
6:00 - Break
7:00 - Intro: Barry Goldwater
7:05 - Ron Paul
8:05 - Sara Evans
9:30 - End of Program
9:30 - Jimmie Vaughan After Party

***

The mission of the Campaign for Liberty is to promote and defend the great American principles of individual liberty, constitutional government, sound money, free markets, and a noninterventionist foreign policy, by means of educational and political activity.


The Campaign for Liberty will carry out its mission through the following activities:

1. Gaining a foothold in political life at every level of government by expanding our precinct leader program.


2. Educating the electorate and lobbying against harmful or unconstitutional legislation.


3. Encouraging the formation of discussion groups and book clubs at the local level to help people learn more about our ideas.


4. Establishing a speakers bureau to give presentations around the country about the great principles we champion.


5. Developing materials for homeschooling families, to help them educate their children in history, sound economics, and related fields.
   
   
6. Featuring written as well as video commentaries on the news and issues of the day.


7. Additional efforts as time and resources allow.

Over the next few months we will be developing our program, organizing a team, and announcing new and exciting projects. Join now to get all of the latest updates and news!


Americans inherit from their ancestors a glorious tradition of freedom and resistance to oppression. Our country has long been admired by the rest of the world for her great example of liberty and prosperity – a light shining in the darkness of tyranny.

But many Americans today are frustrated. The political choices they are offered give them no real choice at all. For all their talk of “change,” neither major political party as presently constituted challenges the status quo in any serious way. Neither treats the Constitution with anything but contempt. Neither offers any kind of change in monetary policy. Neither wants to make the reductions in government that our crushing debt burden demands. Neither talks about bringing American troops home not just from Iraq but from around the world. Our country is going bankrupt, and none of these sensible proposals are even on the table.

This destructive bipartisan consensus has suffocated American political life for many years. Anyone who tries to ask fundamental questions instead of cosmetic ones is ridiculed or ignored.

That is why the Campaign for Liberty was established: to highlight the neglected but common-sense principles we champion and reinsert them into the American political conversation.

The U.S. Constitution is at the heart of what the Campaign for Liberty stands for, since the very least we can demand of our government is fidelity to its own governing document. Claims that our Constitution was meant to be a “living document” that judges may interpret as they please are fraudulent, incompatible with republican government, and without foundation in the constitutional text or the thinking of the Framers. Thomas Jefferson spoke of binding our rulers down from mischief by the chains of the Constitution, and we are proud to follow in his distinguished lineage.

With our Founding Fathers, we also believe in a noninterventionist foreign policy. Inspired by the old Robert Taft wing of the Republican Party, we are convinced that the American people cannot remain free and prosperous with 700 military bases around the world, troops in 130 countries, and a steady diet of war propaganda. Our military overstretch is undermining our national defense and bankrupting our country.

We believe that the free market, reviled by people who do not understand it, is the most just and humane economic system and the greatest engine of prosperity the world has ever known.

We believe with Ludwig von Mises, Henry Hazlitt, and F.A. Hayek that central banking distorts economic decisionmaking and misleads entrepreneurs into making unsound investments. Hayek won the Nobel Prize for showing how central banks’ interference with interest rates sets the stage for economic downturns. And the central bank’s ability to create money out of thin air transfers wealth from the most vulnerable to those with political pull, since it is the latter who receive the new money before the price increases it brings in its wake have yet occurred. For economic and moral reasons, therefore, we join the great twentieth-century economists in opposing the Federal Reserve System, which has reduced the value of the dollar by 95 percent since it began in 1913.

We oppose the dehumanizing assumption that all issues that divide us must be settled at the federal level and forced on every American community, whether by activist judges, a power-hungry executive, or a meddling Congress. We believe in the humane alternative of local self-government, as called for in our Constitution.

We oppose the transfer of American sovereignty to supranational organizations in which the American people possess no elected representatives. Such compromises of our country’s independence run counter to the principles of the American Revolution, which was fought on behalf of self-government and local control. Most of these organizations have a terrible track record even on their own terms: how much poverty have the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund actually alleviated, for example? The peoples of the world can interact with each other just fine in the absence of bureaucratic intermediaries that undermine their sovereignty.

We believe that freedom is an indivisible whole, and that it includes not only economic liberty but civil liberties and privacy rights as well, all of which are historic rights that our civilization has cherished from time immemorial.

Our stances on other issues can be deduced from these general principles.

Our country is ailing. That is the bad news. The good news is that the remedy is so simple and attractive: a return to the principles our Founders taught us. Respect for the Constitution, the rule of law, individual liberty, sound money, and a noninterventionist foreign policy constitute the foundation of the Campaign for Liberty.

Will you join us?

***

Ron Paul supporters to hold 'Ronstock' convention

Updated Sun. Aug. 31 2008 10:34 AM ET

The Associated Press

WASHINGTON -- There's no room at the Xcel Energy Centre for maverick Ron Paul, so his acolytes have packed their cars, hitched rides on "Ronvoys" and will pitch tents at Ronstock '08 in defiance of next week's GOP convention in St. Paul, Minn.

Almost 9,800 tickets had been sold for the Rally for the Republic, being held in Minneapolis.

It seeks to bring together activists who are anti-war, anti-government regulation, anti-immigration, anti-taxes, anti-Federal Reserve, anti-outsourcing, pro-individual liberty, pro-civil liberties and pro-Paul.

The Ronvoys are fleets of buses and vans carrying Paul's loyalists.

A few rally-goers planned to walk from Green Bay, Wis., and join up with Paul for the final kilometres of their Walk4Freedom. Other attendees are driving, carpooling or flying in for the convention alternative.

Paul, a Texas congressman who failed in a bid for the Republican presidential nomination, considers the rally a celebration of traditional Republican values of limited government - and a poke in the eye of the GOP.

They don't plan to crash the Republican party, but to show they and their Campaign for Liberty are not going away.

"No matter how much our message is ignored or ridiculed, as was done in the campaign, no matter how much they did to us, it only energized our grass roots," Paul said.

The rally builds on Paul's presidential bid, in which he set a record for single-day fundraising on the Web and touched a nerve with some disaffected voters, largely in the Republican Party.

In a few Western states, Paul was a serious contender for votes, placing second ahead of Republican John McCain in Nevada and Montana. He drew 14 per cent from McCain in New Mexico, a battleground state.

But Paul has no speaking role at the GOP convention. He said his staff made overtures to the party, but nothing came of its efforts.

Republican Party spokeswoman Joanna Burgos said she had to research whether Paul was invited to speak when asked about a convention role for Paul.

"Our focus is really on this side of the river," Burgos said. "We think there's enough excitement and energy on this side."

McCain's campaign spokesman did not return a phone message.

Paul's faithful still hope to permeate the ranks of the establishment by winning local and state races and pulling in disenchanted party members.

There are a couple dozen Paul delegates attending the GOP convention, though some loyalists say there are more delegates who support Paul.

Meanwhile, their focus is on their own political convergence in Minneapolis.

"We only want to cause noise in the sense of letting people know there are other movements out there that other people believe in," said Kathleen Buchholz, 28, of Denver.

Unable to take time off from school for the rally, Buchholz is attending Tuesday's events, when Paul will speak. She's bypassing sleep to save on hotel costs and flying out early Wednesday.

Rally organizers reported last week they sold all 500 tickets priced at $85 each for their Real Politics Training School scheduled for Sunday.

Attendees will learn political-organizing skills and "how to compete and win at the political game," organizers said on the rally Web site.

Conventions could be a disaster for both Obama and McCain