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Monday 21 February 2011
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| Decision time for the leaders |
The latest Nanos poll confirms other recent polls and show the Tories clawing back support in the Prairies and west, with slight gains for the NDP. When 308 applied the Nanos poll to its projections, it ended up with a minority Tory government (increased to 147 seats from the current 143), with the three opposition parties still holding the majority of the seats in Parliament.
What this means is that if an election is triggered during a vote of no-confidence of the March Harper budget, the Governor General after the election with these results would call on Harper to try yet again to gain confidence with another budget, and if this did not happen because the three opposition parties held firm to their decision to oust the Tories and replace them, the GG would refuse a Harper request to either prorogue Parliament or to call another election so soon after one was held.
Instead, the GG would call upon Michael Ignatieff to attempt to form a government – as leader of the party with the next highest number of seats – which could gain the confidence of the House. If the NDP and Bloc vote confidence in the new minority Liberal government, the Tories would be unable to block this vote with their minority of seats, and Ignatieff would then form a new government.
The key to this change of government happening lies in all 3 opposition parties voting against the Harper March budget and the one after the ensuing election. If any one supports Harper, he continues as prime minister.
It is important to note that 380 forecasts 28 seats for the NDP, a loss of 6 seats from their current 34.
The tradeoff Jack Layton has to make is that between principle (should he support Harper's new budget -with the Tories determined to continue with a $6 billion corporate tax reduction but prepared to partially support one or two of Layton's table wish lists - or should he be consistent with his and his party's past statements and require the $6 billion to be re-directed to other uses (no cash for corporations but cash for kids, for example).
Layton also has to consider that he will lose 6 seats.
The gains for Layton are substantial and consist of retention of his political integrity, consistency of principle, the retention of his leadership of the NDP (which will be badly threatened if he caves to Harper as Harper's cheap date for 2011 budget prom), and the ability of the NDP to play a major role in the programs to be implemented by a more progressive Liberal minority government over the next 4 years.
Boiled down to the nitty gritty, does keeping jobs for 6 NDP MPs weigh more than replacing the reactionary Harper government and boosting jobs for hundreds of thousands of Canadians over the next 4 years?
This is a decision Jack Layton will be making in the next few days.
Statesman or vote-for-hire hack.
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