Modeling Journey

Five thousand delegates have the right to descend upon Montreal, and vote for the next leader of the LPC. Some are obliged to vote on the first ballot for one candidate. But all are free to vote as they choose on the second and other ballots.

Are they really free to choose? Legally, yes. Morally, no. They are there because they represent the members of the Liberal Party. Their task is to choose the best person to lead the party, and to become Prime Minister when Harper's new Tories bite the dust. When they decide whom to vote for on the second and later ballots, how must they make up their minds? Clearly they should consider their own preferences. And they should consider the policies of the candidates. And they should consider the integrity of the candidates. And they should consider the electability of the candidates.

But this is not all. They also have a duty to consider the views of the majority of the Liberal Party, and beyond that, of voters generally. Because they represent the Liberal Party from the second ballot on, rather than any candidate. And through the Liberal Party, they represent voters in general, those who, although not signed up members of the LPC, vote Liberal, and those who, though signed up as a member of another party, might vote Liberal in their country's interest.

However, there is a problem. How does a delegate find out the views of Liberals in particular and voters in general? They have no direct contact with enough of them to poll each of them individually. But there is a way for delegates to find out what the people they represent are thinking. A scientifically proven way.

Every delegate has a duty to consider, in addition to the factors set out above, the opinion of Liberals and voters generally as expressed in the polls taken during the next 60 days before the convention starts, and to be guided by those polls as well as the other factors.