Modeling Journey

Palin and McCain feuding

This is what happens on a losing campaign. John McCain is going down and will not be President. Sarah Palin is a rising star who will likely be the next nominee in 2012. Behind the scenes in the Republican campaign, finger pointing has begun and Palin and her people have ditched the talking points, advice and campaign message that they blame for her negative press and image. In the meantime, McCain has the task of convincing his supporters he can still win. If he fails to do that; turnout and get out the vote efforts will lead to an even more humilating loss to Obama. Sarah Palin has drawn huge crowds, brought energy to an otherwise lame campaign and is now a mainstream celebrity in the United States and around the world. I suspect this will encourage further infighting as Republicans cruise to a certain defeat. Palin is in a great position for 2012, but needs to be careful. The bigger the defeat this year, the more her wagon will be tied to this electoral disaster. I have learned from comments on this blog and elsewhere that Palin has quite the following. Unfortunately for the Republican Party this year, McCain does not. Should be interesting as we go into the final week of this US Presidential election campaign.
-Darryl

12 days to go and Palin still not sure what a VP does

The Vice President is expected to be ready to serve in the event that the President cannot. It is unclear if she is qualified for her main role should she become VP. They also break tie votes in the Senate and occasionally lobby senators to pass legislation. They are not involved in legislation in the way Palin suggests.
-Darryl

From Wikipedia:

The Vice President of the United States is the first person in the presidential line of succession, becoming the new President of the United States upon the death, resignation, or removal of the president, should he or she accept the position. Every presidential term ends on January 20 of the year immediately after a presidential election. As designated by the Constitution of the United States, the vice president also serves as the President of the Senate, and may break tie votes in that chamber. He or she may be assigned additional duties by the president but, as the Constitution assigns no executive powers to the vice president, in performing such duties he or she acts only as an agent of the president.

President of the Senate

President of the SenateAs President of the Senate (Article I, Section 3), the vice president oversees procedural matters and may cast a tie-breaking vote. There is a strong convention within the U.S. Senate that the vice president not use his or her position as President of the Senate to influence the passage of legislation or act in a partisan manner, except in the case of breaking tie votes. As President of the Senate, John Adams cast twenty-nine tie-breaking votes—a record that no successor except for John C. Calhoun ever threatened. His votes protected the president's sole authority over the removal of appointees, influenced the location of the national capital, and prevented war with Great Britain. On at least one occasion he persuaded senators to vote against legislation that he opposed, and he frequently lectured the Senate on procedural and policy matters. Adams' political views and his active role in the Senate made him a natural target for critics of the Washington administration. Toward the end of his first term, as a result of a threatened resolution that would have silenced him except for procedural and policy matters, he began to exercise more restraint in the hope of realizing the goal shared by many of his successors: election in his own right as president of the United States of America.

In modern times, the vice president rarely presides over day-to-day matters in the Senate; in his place, the Senate chooses a President pro tempore (or "president for a time") to preside in the Vice President's absence, and the Senate maintains a Duty Roster for the post, normally selecting the longest serving senator in the majority party.

When the President is impeached, the Chief Justice of the United States of America presides over the Senate during the impeachment trial. Otherwise, the Vice President, in his capacity as President of the Senate, or the President pro tempore of the Senate presides. This may include the impeachment of the Vice President, although legal theories suggest that allowing a person to be the judge in the case where he or she was the defendant wouldn't be permitted. If the Vice President did not preside over an impeachment, the duties would fall to the President Pro Tempore.

One duty required of President of the Senate is presiding over the counting and presentation of the votes of the U.S. Electoral College. This process occurs in the presence of both houses of Congress, on January 6 of the year following a U.S. presidential election. In this capacity, only four Vice Presidents have been able to announce their own election to the presidency: John Adams, Thomas Jefferson, Martin Van Buren, and George H. W. Bush. At the beginning of 1961, it fell to Richard Nixon to preside over this process, which officially announced the election of his 1960 opponent, John F. Kennedy. In 1969, Vice President Hubert Humphrey announced he had lost to Nixon. Later, in 2001, Al Gore announced the election of his opponent, George W. Bush.

Vice President John C. Calhoun became the first vice president to resign the office. He believed he would have more power as a senator. He had been dropped from the ticket by President Andrew Jackson in favor of Martin Van Buren. Already a lame-duck vice president, he was elected to the Senate by the South Carolina state legislature and resigned the vice presidency early to begin his Senate term.

Palin's response to what a VP does a few days ago:



Previous interview where Palin "does not know what a VP does"

Full Palin-Biden debate

In case you missed it watching the Canadian debate. For the record, I think Biden clearly won this debate. No major gaffes by Palin though. It looks like Obama is starting to open up this race in national polls and with a slight lead in most of the major swing states.
-Darryl

Part 1



Part 2



Part 3



Part 4



Part 5



Part 6



Part 7



Part 8



Part 9



Part 10



Part 11

Obama needs Clinton or Gore as VP

Update: Obama has confirmed that his decision has been made in terms of who he will ask to be VP. He did not reveal his choice however. Prior to Saturday (most likely tomorrow) we should know exactly who that choice is. Obama met with Kaine earlier today and the leading three candidates still seem to be possible. As for Hillary, it is looking less likely, but who knows...maybe this is all a smokescreen for a blockbuster surprise where the "dream" ticket would become a reality.
-Darryl


The more I think about it, the more I cannot understand why Obama would name anyone besides Hillary as VP. Think of the situation right now:

-Polls are declining for Obama in key swing states, among blue collar voters, among older voters, among female voters and among Latino voters. His campaign has lost momentum and excitement. McCain has been effective in bringing Obama down to earth and portraying him as a celebrity without substance. He needs something to get off the defense and place a shot of excitement into his campaign.

-At the upcoming Democratic convention almost half of the delegates were initially supporters of Hillary Clinton.

-Obama is polling poorly on the economy and many Democrats and Americans associate the good economic times with Bill Clinton.

-The situation in Russia, Pakistan and Iran is quickly showing that national security experience is going to be crucial going forward in this campaign. No matter who Obama selects on his ticket, it will be obvious that national security and foreign policy will be major requirements to shore up Obama's lack of foreign credentials. The Clintons have a huge network of foreign contacts.

-Someone like Kaine is being considered because he might carry a swing state like Virginia. Would it not go with Hillary Clinton who has a 50 state organization from her primary campaign as well as her husband's presidency.

-Who can raise more money than the Clintons among the front runners currently being considered?

-Polls show that barley a majority of Clinton supporters will vote for Obama. Over 20% will vote for McCain. If uniting the Democratic movement is part of Obama's goal, how would selecting Biden address this situation? Clinton as VP could quickly unite the party and bring a much higher percentage of her voters into the Obama camp. No choice would unite the party more than Hillary who could instantly turn the Democratic convention into a unity love fest.

-If Hillary is snubbed, will her 2012 campaign kick off early?

-Is Obama prepared to spend weeks dealing with the controversy of selecting someone other than Clinton, become forced to explain why to the media and Hillary supporters and than attempt to unite a party full of disenfranchised democrats? Does he want to get so drastically off message with only 10 weeks to go with poor poll numbers despite the unpopularity of Bush?

-Who is a stronger campaigner on the VP short list than Bill and Hillary Clinton?

-Who has been more tested in the media and against Republican attacks than the Clintons?

-After the longest primary in history, almost a billion raised and spent, an organization in every state, similar views on the main issues and 18 million votes case; has Hillary not earned the number two spot? JFK selected his rival. Others have selected his rival. If Obama can work across the isle, show there is no such thing as a blue or red state, unite the country and bring out new voters; would it not be a appropriate to back that message up by showing he can work with Clinton despite a competitive nomination race?

-As potentially the first female president, does Hillary not help Obama's message of change despite her time in Washington as a Senator and First Lady? Initially Hillary was largely seen as Bill's husband. After her campaign, I think she has earned a legacy of her own and has proven to be her own person. Her time in the senate is far less than Obama's rival. I do not think Hillary represents status quo in Washington.

-Is Bill Clinton a liability? Hard to argue that when he obviously has ability to breakthrough in areas where Obama is trailing McCain. He will be hated by the far right, but how many of those voters does Obama expect to realistically get?

-Hillary and Bill are fighters. Who better to go negative on McCain than Hillary who proved to be a huge attack dog towards the end of her campaign. Her arguments were picked up and expanded by McCain. By joining the ticket, Hillary would reduce the damage of those previous attacks.

-Why would Hillary do it? She has already said she wants the job. She needs to pay off her debts. She is clearly the number two in the Democratic Party right now. The VP role would allow her to focus on health care or other issues she cares about from the executive branch.

-What would be a better way to overshadow the Republican convention than to name Hillary VP and steal the headlines for the next couple of weeks. Poll after poll shows that far and away Democrats prefer Obama to select Hillary. I think a major opportunity would be lost going with a lesser known candidate. With the exception of Al Gore, I cannot think of any name in the top tier that would be anything more than a total letdown if selected.

-If Obama really doesn't want Hillary (and many in his campaign do not), than at the very least he needs someone with the profile, organization, fundraising ability and experience. Al Gore could deliver that profile. Having said that, I think Obama should name Hillary as VP and then also his cabinet in advance. Can you imagine if he named Clinton is VP and then defined roles for Biden, Richardson, Gore, Powell, and others in a potential cabinet. The team around Obama would shore up his inexperience and minimize the risk that is holding many back from voting for an unknown quantity in the face of McCain's experience and track record.

-Conventional wisdom says that Biden is going to be the VP. The more I think about it, the more I am going to throw my money on a surprise with Hillary Clinton. Selecting someone else really doesn't make much sense and quite possibly could cost him the White House in 10 weeks.

I will be waiting for that text...

Darryl

Obama should pick Hillary...will likely pick Biden as VP