McCain hits a new low

John McCain is trailing badly in the polls and by all accounts is going to lose his bid for the White House on November 4. Now he is working on losing his legacy as a man of integrity and someone who promised to take the high road during this campaign. What happened to the straight talk express? As desperation sinks in, it is clear that McCain and Palin are attempting to throw as much mud as possible and simply hoping something sticks. Unfortunately for him, it doesn't change his lack of understanding on the economy, foreign affairs and the record of the Republican Party over the past 8 years. It doesn't change the fact he has turned off independents with his campaigning. It doesn't change the fact he is now on the defensive in states easily won by George W. Bush in 2004. It doesn't change the fact he has lost every debate. It doesn't change the fact he cannot raise anything close to Obama financially. It doesn't change the excitement and desire for change Barack Obama (with the help of George W. Bush) has inspired in America.

McCain is clearly out of ideas, out of touch and losing badly in this campaign. His VP choice is unqualified to be president. His party is not fully behind him. He wants to discuss anything but the economy - the top issue and priority of the day. Today McCain's campaign calls Obama a socialist and a terrorist. I guarantee you soon they will be calling him President of the United States.

It looks like the McCain camp is going to bring back Rev. Wright despite previously saying it was not relevant to the campaign. Just more flip flopping and confused messaging from the McCain camp. This is why people like Colin Powell have endorsed Obama and why I predict many Republicans will stay home on November 4.
-Darryl

My cabinet predictions

Stephen Harper will have a lot of tough challenges ahead of him when he is selecting his new cabinet. Clearly we have a much deeper bench than previously. Here is a cabinet I put together for fun. I wanted to keep stability by leaving our strong ministers from last time where they are. I was also worried about regional, minority and gender representation. There are no surprises such as people crossing the floor or senate appointments. It will be interesting to see how close the real cabinet comes to this. I suspect similar players, but different positions. My cabinet also has a few extra positions than previous, but I suspect that is unlikely. Expect about 30 ministers with some secretary of states similar to previous Harper cabinets. Any feedback would be appreciated. I look forward to hearing who readers would recommend for the various posts. I highlighted York Region representation in bold.
-Darryl

Potential Cabinet

Prime Minister: Stephen Harper (ALB)

Deputy Prime Minister: Peter Van Loan (ONT)

Finance: Jim Flaherty (ONT)

Defense: Peter MacKay (NS)

Agriculture – Kelly Block (Sask)

Atlantic Canada – Gail Shea (PEI)

Heritage, Status of Women and Official Languages – Josee Verner (QUE)

Citizenship & Immigration – Jason Kenney (ALB)

Foreign Affairs – Peter Kent (ONT)

Environment – John Baird (ONT)

Fisheries & Oceans – Greg Thompson (NB)

Health – Tony Clement (ONT)

Veterans Affairs – Gordon O’Connor (ONT)

Human Resources & Social Development – Chuck Strahl (BC)

Indian Affairs & Northern Development – Leona Aglukkaq (NVT)

Industry, Science & Technology – Diane Ablonczy (ALB)

International Trade – Jim Prentice (ALB)

International Cooperation – Alice Wong (BC)

Justice – Rob Nicholson (ONT)

Labour – Jean Pierre Blackburn (QUE)

Quebec - Maxime Bernier (QUE)

House Leader and Whip - Peter Van Loan (ONT)

Minister for Ontario – Michael Chong (ONT)

Democratic Reform – Christian Paradis (QUE)

Senate Leader – Marjory LeBreton (ONT)

National Revenue – Vic Toews (MAN)

Natural Resources – Gary Lunn (BC)

Public Safety – Stockwell Day (BC)

Public Works – Diane Finley (ONT)

Intergovernmental Affairs – Lawrence Cannon (QUE)

Transport, Infrastructure and Communities/Minister for Toronto – Lisa Raitt (ONT)

Treasury Board – Bob Dechert (ONT)

Western Canada, Asia-Pacific Gateway, Wheat board and Olympics – James Moore (BC)

Multiculturalism & Identity – Bev Oda (ONT) or Deepak Obhrai (ALB)

Tourism & Small Business – Rona Ambrose (ALB)

Sport – Helena Guergis (ONT)

Canada and the world want Obama

Canada just elected a Conservative government with 143 seats. What is interesting is that when surveyed on the US Race, 67% of Canadians prefer Barack Obama to John McCain who polled at 22%. In the rest of the world, on average non-Americans prefer Obama 4-1 over his Republican opponent. Based on these results, it is clear that the world overwhelming prefers Barack Obama to John McCain. I suspect the past 8 years of George Bush have a lot to do with these numbers. Given that Obama is most likely going to take the WhiteHouse in 13 days, I think these numbers are positive. Obama has the tools to restore America's image in the world. Given that economic, security, climate change and issues such as Iran are going to require international cooperation; I think these numbers demonstrate that Obama has the leadership qualities to get something productive done on all these fronts. I look forward to his first trip to Canada as President. I suspect he will be greeted with a much different reception than George W. Bush has been given here in the past.
-Darryl

U.S. Neighbors Prefer Obama to McCain by 3-to-1 Margin

Canadians more likely to see election’s outcome as relevant to them

by Steve Crabtree

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- When Canadians and Mexicans were asked in recent Gallup Polls whom they would personally rather see elected president of the United States this November, Democratic candidate Barack Obama received about three times as many nods among both populations as Republican contender John McCain.

Two in three Canadians (67%) prefer Obama, while 22% favor McCain. As in the United States, widespread disapproval of the Bush administration is almost certainly hurting McCain in Canada. Just 22% of Canadians say they approve of the current U.S. leadership, while 71% say they do not.

In Mexico, the ratio of supporters between the two candidates is similar at 3-to-1 in favor of Obama; unlike Canadians however, most Mexicans -- 63% -- do not venture an opinion at all. This is in part a function of Mexicans' lower average socioeconomic status and education level; for example, 76% of Mexicans with elementary education or less say they don't have an opinion about the U.S. election, versus just 35% of those with a four-year degree who say the same.

However, Mexicans' lack of responsiveness may also stem from the fact that only 34% feel the U.S. election outcome will make a difference to their country, while 37% say it will not. Among Canadians, three-fourths say U.S. residents' choice of president will make a difference to Canada, while just 22% disagree.

NAFTA

One substantive disagreement between McCain and Obama has come on the issue of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). Obama wants to renegotiate the agreement to include enforceable labor and environmental standards -- a position that McCain has criticized as harmful to the economic growth brought about by free trade in the region.

A slim majority of Canadians agree with McCain that NAFTA has benefited their country economically; 51% say its effect has been mainly positive, while 39% say it has been mainly negative.

However, another finding suggests most Canadians are not powerfully attached to NAFTA: When asked what they think their government should do if the United States does decide to negotiate a new trade agreement, 45% say the Canadian government should agree to start negotiations, while 34% say the government should try to keep NAFTA intact, and 13% favor having no trade agreement at all. What's more, a September poll for the Council of Canadians found that 61% of Canadians agreed with Obama's intention to renegotiate NAFTA.

With regard to Mexican public opinion, NAFTA may be a wash politically -- 21% of Mexicans say the agreement has had a positive effect on their economy, while 24% say it has been negative. A majority of Mexicans either say the effect has been neither positive nor negative (19%) or that they don't know (36%).

Immigration

Mexicans' relative inattention to the U.S. election may partly reflect the relative lack of discussion by either candidate on one issue of particular concern to Mexicans: immigration policy. Currently, almost one in five Mexicans (18%) say they have family members who have moved abroad in the past five years, and 81% of those family members moved to the United States. Remittances are a significant source of income for many; 78% of Mexicans say those who go to live abroad are "a big help" for their families.

There is little substantive difference between Obama and McCain on immigration, which helps explain their lack of focus on the issue. Both candidates support a legalization process for illegal immigrants living in the United States that includes paying fines and learning English. Both also support guest worker programs, and both voted in 2006 for the construction of a fence along 700 miles of the United States/Mexico border.

Survey Methods

Results from Canada are based on telephone interviews with 1,005 adults, aged 15 and older, conducted Aug. 7-Sept. 7, 2008. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points. Results from Mexico are based on face-to-face interviews with 873 adults, aged 15 and older, conducted July 25-30, 2008. For results based on this total sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

***

The world picks Obama for president - 4 to 1

Gallup poll of 70 countries finds widespread international support for Democratic candidate, including 67 per cent in Canada

SIRI AGRELL

October 22, 2008

Americans may still be undecided, but the rest of the world has made up its mind about who should be elected president of the United States.

A Gallup poll of 70 countries conducted from May through September has found widespread international support for Democratic candidate Barack Obama.

Around the world, respondents favoured Mr. Obama 4 to 1 over Republican John McCain.

In Canada, 67 per cent chose Mr. Obama and 22 per cent Mr. McCain. And 75 per cent of Canadian respondents said the presidential election would make a difference for their own country.

The Democratic nominee also enjoyed levels of support higher than 60 per cent in Australia, Germany, England and Japan, where the U.S. election was viewed as having a global impact.

Around the world, only Georgia, Cambodia, Laos and the Philippines backed the Republican candidate.

Europeans were the most likely to state a preference in the election and to believe the winner would have an impact on their own countries.

Mr. Obama also received an overseas endorsement yesterday from the Conservative mayor of London, Boris Johnson.

"He visibly incarnates change and hope, at a time when America desperately needs both," Mr. Johnson wrote in the Daily Telegraph.

Within the United States, change seemed to be the theme of this week's polls.

A Pew Research Center poll released yesterday found that the Democrat is enjoying his widest margin yet over Mr. McCain among registered voters, at 52 per cent to 38 per cent.

The Rasmussen Report, however, released a daily tracking poll that had Mr. Obama ahead by just four points, leading Mr. McCain 50 per cent to 46 per cent, and Gallup had Mr. Obama ahead 52 per cent to 41 per cent.

But attention is increasingly settling on key battleground states, where the two candidates are competing for the electoral votes they need to win the White House on Nov. 4.

Polls yesterday showed the Democrats leading in all of the battleground states won by John Kerry in 2004 and several won by Republican President George W. Bush.

A CNN poll yesterday had Mr. Obama leading in Colorado by a margin of 51 to 47 per cent. In Florida, he was ahead 49 to 45, within the poll's margin of error. The same poll found Mr. McCain leading in Indiana 51 per cent to 46 per cent, and in Georgia 53 per cent to 45 per cent.

It was reported this week that the McCain campaign had effectively given up on Colorado, Iowa and New Mexico, states the party had once believed would lead them to victory.

But Jill Hazelbaker, Mr. McCain's national communications director, released a statement yesterday denying the report.

"We see the race tightening both internally and in public polling," she said. "We are within striking distance in the key battleground states we need to win."

Who would you personally rather see elected president of the United States?

	Obama	McCain
Britain	60%	15%
Canada	67%	27%
Chile	43%	9%
France	64%	4%
Georgia	15%	23%
Germany	62%	10%
Japan	66%	15%
Kenya	89%	3%
Laos	24%	25%
Mexico	27%	9%
Philippines	20%	28%
Rwanda	57%	12%

Note: Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.

TONIA COWAN/THE GLOBE AND MAIL // SOURCE: GALLUP

Thank you for deciding to enter politics. Canada has need of more men and women of talent who decide to practise this honourable profession.

Thank you for fighting to save the earth from global warming. You did not succeed this time, but in years to come Canadians will look back at this last election, and understand that you were right, and the Luddites in the Tory party were wrong on this issue.

Thank you for being an honourable MP. You have always paid respect to the traditions of our democratic parliament, unlike so many who seem to believe they were sent to a zoo, not a house of discussion.

We hope you continue to play an important role in our nation’s politics.

We should all salute Garth Turner for his courage in daring to be an MP who is not afraid to speak out, and to voice his opinions. That is as much the job of an MP as voting with your party is.

We should also salute Garth Turner for his use of blogging as a means to communicate with his constituents, and with other Canadians. In this, he was far in advance of most other MPs. Let us hope that the next leader of the Liberal Party copies his example, and has a weekly blog to inform Liberals and Canadians of his or her thoughts and plans.

Finally, Garth’s loss is really Canada’s loss.

The extent of the loss becomes apparent when we realize that an outspoken MP has been replaced by a muzzled, non-talking, non-communicating member of a political party which has adopted policies regarding centralized messages and the power of the leader which are in some ways more extreme than those practised by totalitarian leaders of the past, such as Lenin and Stalin.

How on earth can we say that democracy in Canada is helped when an MP who actually communicated his views publicly to his constituents and to the public, is replaced by an MP who no doubt will be as muzzled as all Tory MPs appear to be?

Sad to see you go, Garth.

And I hope that one day you rise again.

Dion to remain Liberal leader until a new one is chosen

Quick points:

-I think Dion came across very well. I was left with the impression that he is a sincere and genuine human being who has much more to contribute to Canadian politics. I think his point about the loss being about more than just leadership should be listened to by Liberals.

-I think it was a smart move to stay on as leader until after the next Liberal leadership convention. Caucus lobbying for Goodale and McCallum to serve as interim leader was showing that already there is infighting among the various camps within the Liberal party. It seems Ignatieff was pushing hard for McCallum while Rae's people wanted Goodale. Dryden was being proposed as a solution that would be neutral among the two camps. By staying, Dion puts an end to this type of thing.

-Dion wants to make fundraising the top priority within the Liberal Party. He wants to protect the next Liberal leader from being "vulnerable" like he was. Abstaining, not challenging early attack ads on the carbon tax/his leadership and the major Conservative financial advantage were consequences he cited for weak Liberal financing in contrast to the other parties. There is no question that this is true and needs to be addressed by Liberals.

-Dion did not commit if he will run in the next election, but stated he would work hard for the next leader.

-Early front runners include: McKenna, Iggy and Rae. Also likely to run are: Findlay, Kennedy, Manley, Brison, McGuinty (one of them) and Dhalla. Justin Trudeau announced he would NOT run this weekend. Ken Dryden was mentioned as a possible interim leader signalling that he probably does not have an interest in running for the leadership. Joe Volpe might run again based on his early comments calling for Dion to resign. Stephen LeDrew and Warren Kinsella are wild cards in terms of entering the race.

Thanks for reading...

Darryl

Colin Powell Endorses Barack Obama for President

On NBC's Meet The Press, General Colin Powell announced his support for Barack Obama. October 19, 2008.