Modeling Journey

Duceppe has just finished his press conference and has responded to the Liberal Party's unilateral declaration of its independence of the Harper minority government.

And Duceppe has laid out the terms on which he will prop up the Harper minority government.

We will dance with the Tories, Duceppe said in essence, but Harper and his government must understand three things about this dance:

1. We, the Bloc, play the dominant role (that is, we direct the dance moves, much like a man does in ballroom dancing, and so Harper and his ministers will have to get used to a role now unfamiliar to them: taking directions).

2. We decide what the music will be (see more below).

3. We decide when to end the dance.

So where does that leave us?

Depends on whether Stephen Harper is prepared to change his suits for a nice, flaring, floor length ballroom dance dress, hold his left hand up to clasp Duceppe's right hand, drape his right arm on Duceppe's manly shoulder, and then start dancing when and how Duceppe directs.

A tango it won't be. But a nice waltz, not too fast so that the new couple on the dance floor don't trip over their feet (after all, Harper needs to get used to wearing high heels) – that is possible.

But what about the music?

Oh, that's not a problem, Duceppe said very clearly in his interview. He and his Bloc MPs will give due consideration to each and every dance (no blanket approvals for a long time from this dancing partner!)

And he will start with dances that he knows Harper knows, just to make things easier for Harper in his new role as a gliding waltzer. That means starting with the proposals which Duceppe tabled with Harper in November 2008 and also in April 2009.
Bring to parliament concrete proposals, to implement things, with definite and short timelines, rather than just talk about them, and we can dance, he said. Make sure the proposals are in the interests of Quebec, as the Bloc interprets those interests, and we can dance, he said. Forgeddabout moving the securities commission from Montreal to Toronto – that's not one of the tunes that we can dance to. Forgeddabout not doing the things we have said need to be done with respect to the EI changes – that's not one of the tunes we can dance to. Forgeddabout not pumping some more money into the Quebec forest industry – that's also not one of the tunes we can dance to.

So there we have it.

Duceppe has donned his bright shiny dance shoes, spiffed up his nicely tailored dance suit, pinned on a cheerful fleur-de-lis to his lapel, and offered his arm to Stephen Harper.

And come the first confidence vote, the Bloc will consider whether the tunes that are available meet with its concern. If they do, then Duceppe will dance.

And he will dance with either Stephen Harper or Michael Ignatieff.

Depends which one of these two offers him the best choice of tunes.

Let the dancing begin!

Well, the NDP tried.
They said they would give the Harper minority government a chance to show that the Tories were prepared to depart from their previous uncooperative methods and table policies closer to what the NDP wanted. And if the Tories did this, the NDP would consider propping them up come September

And, presumably, if the Tories kept giving the NDP things that they wanted (over and above the list of four the NDP floated), then as the weeks went by, the NDP would continue to prop up the Tories. As long as the gifts to the NDP and to Canadians kept coming.

As long as Stephen Harper took out his sweater and put on a red hat with white trimming and started to play Santa Clause to Jack Layton's NDP party, that is. As soon as the gifts stopped coming, the implicit argument went, then the propping would stop and Harper would be on his own, fuzzy sweater and nice red hat notwithstanding.

So what do the Tories think of the NDP recasting their role in the next Parliament into one in which they become Harper's merry little elves, doing Santa's bidding and busily engaged in making and packaging presents for Jack and his Dippers?

Not much:

"A senior Conservative cabinet minister is dismissing the chances the minority Harper government might be able to cut a deal with the NDP in order to stay in office.

Canadians appear to be headed for a fall election after Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff announced Tuesday his party will no longer prop up the minority Tory government and will actively seek its defeat. The NDP, however, has so far reserved judgment on whether it will follow suit and help the Liberals.

But Immigration Minister Jason Kenney told a Calgary radio show Wednesday that he cannot see NDP Leader Jack Layton and the Tories finding enough common ground to reach an agreement that would see the New Democrats prop up the Conservative government.

Such a deal would require the Tories to introduce policies the NDP has been calling for, such as regulating credit-card interest rates.

“Look. We've always tried to demonstrate willingness to co-operate with the opposition parties. We did in the last budget. But we're not for sale to the highest bidder, least of all the NDP,” Mr. Kenney told Calgary radio show host Dave Rutherford today.

“It's a party of hard-core left-wing ideologues. … It's not like a moderate, centre-left party. These folks, they drink their own Kool-Aid right? So I don't think we can see a realistic arrangement with the NDP.”

Privately, senior Conservative officials are saying the same thing.

“There's not much to be gained playing footsie with Jack Layton,” one Tory official said."

Ouch!

Not prepared to play Santa. Not up for sale to the highest bidder. Hard-core left-wing idealogues. Kool-Aid drinkers. Footsie players.

Not the nice, inviting words to begin a close relationship, eh?

The Cat would guess that Jack's love is going to be unrequited. No goodies from Santa Stephen.

And no footsie playing, either.

Reporter after reporter is asking Liberal spokespeople how the Liberal Party justifies causing the spending of another $300 million on an election so soon after the last one. Tory spokespeople have also joined in this chorus.

And so far the LPC has not given an answer that meets the "elevator test" one – one that takes 30 seconds and puts the case squarely.

The Cat suggests that the Liberal Party answer this question this way:

"We are seeking to replace the incompetent Conservative government with a competent Liberal government.

One of the reasons we are doing so is because we believe the Tories are mismanaging the finances of the country.

Election costs of $300 million are just over half of one percent (0.5%) of the Tory $50 billion budget deficit.

We believe a competent Liberal government will save Canadians far more than half a percent when we provide the proper management that the country needs in this time of economic crisis."

That's it.

Toronto, ON - September 25th-27th

With the potential of a fall election, NOW is the time to make sure you are prepared for the campaign. This highly intensive 3-day program promises to be the most comprehensive campaign manager training ever delivered in Canada. Taught by a mix of experienced and successful campaign managers, and experts in related fields from around Canada and the United States, the knowledge and skills you learn at this school can make the difference between winning and losing.

Presenters to include:

· Preston Manning - Founder of the Reform and Canadian Alliance Parties, former Leader of the Opposition, CEO of the Manning Centre

· Dimitri Pantazopolous - Pollster of Record, Conservative Party of Canada for the 2004 and 2006 Elections

· Richard Ciano - Former Conservative Party Vice President and founder of Conservative Campaign University

· Tom Long - Ontario PC Campaign Chair for 1995 and 1999 Provincial Elections, former Canadian Alliance leadership candidate

· David Akin - National Affairs Correspondent for CanWest News Service

· Stephen Taylor - Founder of Blogging Tories, social media expert

There will be a strong participatory model for the training, which will see students formed into teams and competing in practical exercises to help master the topics covered. Breakfast and Lunch will be served.

Registration is $299 (earlybird - September 14th) or $349

Contact Christy MacPhail at: cmacphail@mcbd.ca

Register online at: http://www.manningcentre.ca/en/activity_description/51

Tentative Itinerary

Day 1 - Friday
8:30-9:00		REGISTRATION & BREAKFAST
9:00-9:15		WELCOME & OPENING VIDEO
9:15-10:30		Campaign Organization: Major Jobs and Roles
10:30-10:45		BREAK
10:45-12:00		Campaign Plan
12:00-12:30		LUNCH
12:30-2:00		Campaign Strategy and Research
2:00-2:15		BREAK
2:15-3:30		Where are your votes?: Poll-by-poll breakdowns, demographics and coalitions
3:30-3:45		BREAK
3:45-5:00 5:00-6:00		Scheduling / Handling the Candidate Practical Exercises
Day 2 - Saturday
8:30-9:00			BREAKFAST
9:00-10:00			Recruiting, Motivating (& Keeping) Volunteers
10:00-10:15			BREAK
10:15-11:15			Canvassing Door-to-Door
11:15-12:30			Voter Contact by Phone (paid/volunteer)
12:30-1:00			LUNCH
1:00-2:15			Coalition Building and Outreach
2:15-2:30			BREAK
2:30-3:30			Your Online Presence
3:30-5:00 5:00-6:00			Other Communications: Signs, Paid Media, Direct Mail Practical Exercises
Day 3 - Sunday
8:30-9:00			BREAKFAST
9:00-10:30			Fundraising Basics / Finance Plan
10:30-10:45			BREAK
10:45-11:15			Personal Solicitation
11:15-12:15			Direct Mail Fundraising
12:15-12:45			LUNCH
12:45-2:00			Media and Communications
2:00-2:15			BREAK
2:15-3:15			Field Organization
3:15-3:30			BREAK
3:30-5:00 5:00-6:00			GOTV: Get Out The Vote Practical Exercises

The Liberals now have two major frames to be used in fighting the coming election, and to present to the voters of Canada as reasons why Harper's minority Tory government should be replaced by a Liberal government.

To borrow from the striking image used by the doyen of issue framing, George Lakoff, the Liberals now have two strong, positive and effective elephants which will define the debate in the public space during the next two months or so.

The first elephant deals with the failure of the Harper government.

The second elephant deals with a vision for Canada, if voters turf out the Tories bye refusing them a majority of seats and sending a majority of opposition MPs to Parliament.

The first framing is very simple, and I have referred to it in two earlier posts. It comes to grips with reasons why the Liberals should not support the Tory government, and enables the Liberals to go on the attack on the past record of inaction of the Tories, their present foot-dragging, and their future actions.

Elephant number one is simply this: The mismanagement by the Tory government of a Canadian economy in crisis.

Elephant number two is simply these words uttered today by Michael Ignatieff: We can do better.

""We can do better," said Mr. Ignatieff, in an address to his national caucus at a retreat to prepare Liberals before the Sept. 14 resumption of Parliament.

"We can be the smartest, healthiest, greenest, hardest-working, most open-minded country there is - but only if we choose to be.""

There you have it. Two major themes; two major framing issues; two major debating points – one dealing with why the Tories should not be propped up, the other with a vision for the future of Canada.

Liberal policies – to be announced once the campaign starts – will support the second framing- the vision that We can do better.

Now let the NDP and Bloc consider their choices. These are stark. Prop up the Tory government at the first vote of confidence, or vote the Tories out of power, and fight the election.

And when the election is over, whether it is a Tory minority government or a Liberal minority government, the next step of choices will face the NDP and Bloc. Logically, if all three opposition parties do not have confidence in the Harper government and vote it out of power, then come the first vote of confidence in the replacing government, all 3 parties should vote the replacing Tory government down (if the Tories win the most seats of any party but still a minority). The Governor General will then call on the Liberal Party, as the one with the next highest number of seats, to form a government and hold a vote of confidence. Logically, once again, the NDP and Bloc should vote in favour of the minority Liberal government.

So the upshot of today's decision by the Liberal Party is simple: the government of Stephen Harper will fall (either getting less seats than the Liberals in the coming election, or by not gaining the confidence of the House if it wins more seats than the Liberals but less than a majority).

Only the timing of the Tory fall from power is unknown at this stage.

And then a minority Liberal government, supported by the NDP and Bloc in confidence votes, will implement a centre-left or progressive set of policies for the next year or so, and perhaps much longer.

What is clear is that the instability caused by the Tory refusal to govern with policies meeting the approval of all 3 of the opposition parties will soon end, and Canada can move forward in two phases: first, fixing things which Harper has not fixed, such as the EI system and the implementation of a proper stimulus plan, and secondly, once those items are done, moving Canada forward.

You are right, Michael Ignatieff: We can do better.

And so we shall.

Read this:

"Meanwhile, Montreal MP Marlene Jennings, who's been part of the Liberal-Conservative panel looking for a compromise on employment-insurance reform this summer, rattled off a whole list of issues this morning on which she said the government deserved to be defeated.

She said that Conservatives had not presented any ideas to the EI panel this summer, simply rejecting all the suggestions the Liberals brought to the table. Jennings compared the Conservatives to a "two-year-old child" refusing food being offered.
"It's time that Mr. Harper and his government started acting like a responsible government and act in the best interests of Canadians, which they have not been doing. And not just on EI — EI is not even the tip of the iceberg," Jennings said.
Last week, Senator David Smith, campaign chief for the Liberals, said they would not be provoking an election over EI this fall. Jennings said yesterday that there were plenty of other reasons to vote no-confidence in the government.

"Let's talk about the medical isotopes. Let's talk about the drought that farmers are living with, and having to leave their farms, give up life careers on that. Let's talk about the salmon disappearing out in B.C., millions of salmon disappearing and the government isn't doing anything. Let's talk about the fact that we have a deficit now — an import deficit that we haven't had in how many years, how many decades — under this government. Let's talk about 1.6 million Canadians who are out of jobs and this government is doing virtually nothing for them except saying 'no, no, no, no, no.' Well, the government needs to grow up. That's what they need to do," Jennings said.

Mississauga MP Paul Szabo says that it's not important for the Liberals to have just one reason to call an election - it's the collective picture of all the reasons.

"There's no one issue that is a critical mass to say an election is necessarily. But all of those things collectively paint a picture that the government cannot be trusted and there's no confidence that they have a plan to get us out of a structural deficit situation and to address the litany of problems that Canada has right now," Szabo said."

The Cat offers one suggestion to Paul Szabo: there IS one major reason to call an election – the issues is the mismanagement by the Tory government of a Canadian economy in crisis.

This one issue of mismanagement unites all the specific examples of such mismanagement, and also includes the manner in which the Tories are trying to govern the country (their inability to get all parties on the Hill to work together with them to help all Canadians).

So the theme of economic mismanagement of an economy in crisis covers not only what the Tories did in the past, but also what they are doing right now, and what they are not doing right now.

So this general theme (framing) of mismanagement of an economy in crisis allows Liberals to discuss with voters in the campaign the Tories' foot dragging, their inability to see what was coming our way, their refusal to face up to the need for swift, prompt, all-party-supported stimulus measures, their frittering away of billions on spending which will not position our country for the future, their reluctance to help the 1.6 million jobless Canadians and all those under-employed Canadians, their insistence that our cities match the stimulus funding, and their lack of information flow to Canadians about what jobs we can expect from the billions being spent; and, of course, their reluctance to address the methods to lessen the deficit in the future except by denying that anything needs to be done – the classic Tory avoidance of reality technique.

Frame the issue properly, repeat the framing each and every time, and then campaign on the framing issue.

Remember: The Liberal elephant that the Tories fear is the Tory mismanagement of an economy in crisis.

Tories might be OK to some Canadians in good times, but in bad times like now most Canadians (61% according to the polls) want some sound economic management right now.

Now let's talk about the Liberal elephant -from now until election day!

Read this:

"Liberal finance critic John McCallum said Tuesday that his party should bring down the Conservative government over its management of the economic crisis, saying the Tories were too slow at getting fiscal stimulus money out the door this summer.
McCallum also pointed to Monday's news that Canada's economy grew by 0.1 per cent in June, about half the growth the private sector had expected.

"Well I certainly think a strong case can be made for a change in government on grounds of economic mismanagement because yesterday's growth numbers showed that, far from leading the G7 out of recession, Canada was dead last in its economic performance in the second quarter," McCallum told Smith during an interview on News Channel."

Forget about letting the Tories frame the lack of action on EI as the issue: this lack of action is simply one part of general Tory mismanagement of an economy in crisis, and should be addressed as such, but only as one of the many examples of mismanagement.

A far more important example of the mismanagement of an economy in crisis is the lack of actual stimulus spending, and the lack of oversight of the stimulus effort. When the Liberals pushed the Tory government to prime the pumps of our faltering economy, we did not for one moment say that the Tories should do that without oversight, nor did we expect the stimulus spending (which caused huge deficits) to be spent on items of no long lasting or strategic positioning value to our country.

The Tory team is not the right team for the sound economic stewardship our country needs right now. They should be held accountable for their lack of urgency, their frittering away of a chance to make public infrastructure investments which would provide benefits to the country's future workers for years to come, for their lack of adequate monitoring of the taxpayers monies spent, for their insufficient information flow to the taxpayers on exactly what was being done to prime the economy, and for their unwillingness to reach out in a meaningful, respectful and effective way to the other parties in Parliament so as to gain their support for an economy in crisis.

Now it is time to table the lack of confidence of the Liberal Party in the mismanagement of our economy in crisis by the minority Tory government.

Good framing, John.