Sunday 31 August 2008

John McCain Announces Changes to the Republic Convention

My thoughts and prayers are with those impacted by Hurricane Gustav. I think McCain made the right decision.
-Darryl


TVO plugs Reuters Voices without Votes...Looking for pro-McCain bloggers

I appreciate the plug for Reuters Voices without Votes on Mike Miner TVO Fifth Column Blog. Reuters "Voices without Votes" is an opportunity for bloggers around the world to express their opinions on the US election. Right now the project is looking for blogging Canadians who support John McCain. If you enjoy writing about US politics and are supporting the McCain-Palin ticket in the November 2008 election, please email darrylwolk@gmail.com or link your blog in the comment section of this post.

Reuters Voters without Votes website:
http://www.voiceswithoutvotes.com

-Darryl

***

The people-who-can't-vote perspective? Check

Posted on: 29 August 2008 by Mike Miner

Are you like me? Have you gone coo-coo for convention coverage?

It's as much fun to watch the good folks over at MSNBC lose the plot mid-story (we might be reaching some kind of pundit critical mass - too much spin, with not enough weight in the thought and content. The centre cannot hold), as it is to watch Joe Biden hold forth for 22-minutes of speechifying that gave you an idea of what eight years of him would feel like.

I watch it thinking Beau Biden and Michelle Obama are terrific performers and wondering whether the Democrats will remember people need to like the candidate, and Americans have little appetite for being told they nincompoops who need to be told to wake up.

And I wonder what spin the Republicans are going to put on Obama's candidacy, and wonder if they'll somehow slip out from under their baggage and once again out-maneuvre the Dems.

All that aside, it's easy enough to fold up my wondering clothes and put them in a drawer. There are reams of newsprint being stamped with analysis on these topics, and if I flip through the channels fast enough, the talking heads complete one another's sentences. There is no lack of coverage.

But what if you want something a little different? Well, the fine folks at Global Voices have partnered with Reuters to create Voices Without Votes, which co-founder Ethan Zuckerman describes as"a blog aggregator that portrays the US elections through the eyes of individuals around the world."

This is more than trivia in an election that is very much about America's place in the world and the perception of it in foreign lands. And some of the commentary is coming from Canada (Darryl Wolk, an Ontarian, is getting a lot of play on the page).

For all you convention carnivores, more meat for the meat eaters.

New Conservative/Harper pre-election Ads:

I like the positive tone of these ads to start off the expected campaign...
-Darryl


Ron Paul Rally for the Republic Convention Info

In case you are in Minnesota and do not want to attend McCain's convention...

http://www.rallyfortherepublic.com/
http://www.campaignforliberty.com/


-Darryl







Rally for the Republic Official Schedule


Tuesday’s Rally for the Republic schedule:
11:30 - Doors open
12:30 - Intro: Tucker Carlson
12:40 - National Anthem: Matt Colvin
12:50 - Invocation: Barb Davis White
12:55 - Howard Phillips
1:10 - Doug Wead
1:30 - Tom Woods
1:50 - Grover Norquist
2:10 - Lew Rockwell
2:30 - Bill Kauffman
2:50 - Special Guest
3:10 - Bruce Fein
3:35 - Gov. Jesse Ventura
4:05 - John Tate‚ Campaign for Liberty Presentation
4:25 - Gov. Gary Johnson
5:00 - Aimee Allen
6:00 - Break
7:00 - Intro: Barry Goldwater
7:05 - Ron Paul
8:05 - Sara Evans
9:30 - End of Program
9:30 - Jimmie Vaughan After Party


***

Our Mission


The mission of the Campaign for Liberty is to promote and defend the great American principles of individual liberty, constitutional government, sound money, free markets, and a noninterventionist foreign policy, by means of educational and political activity.

Strategy
The Campaign for Liberty will carry out its mission through the following activities:
  1. Gaining a foothold in political life at every level of government by expanding our precinct leader program.

  2. Educating the electorate and lobbying against harmful or unconstitutional legislation.

  3. Encouraging the formation of discussion groups and book clubs at the local level to help people learn more about our ideas.

  4. Establishing a speakers bureau to give presentations around the country about the great principles we champion.

  5. Developing materials for homeschooling families, to help them educate their children in history, sound economics, and related fields.

  6. Featuring written as well as video commentaries on the news and issues of the day.

  7. Additional efforts as time and resources allow.
Over the next few months we will be developing our program, organizing a team, and announcing new and exciting projects. Join now to get all of the latest updates and news!

Statement of Principles
Americans inherit from their ancestors a glorious tradition of freedom and resistance to oppression. Our country has long been admired by the rest of the world for her great example of liberty and prosperity – a light shining in the darkness of tyranny.

But many Americans today are frustrated. The political choices they are offered give them no real choice at all. For all their talk of “change,” neither major political party as presently constituted challenges the status quo in any serious way. Neither treats the Constitution with anything but contempt. Neither offers any kind of change in monetary policy. Neither wants to make the reductions in government that our crushing debt burden demands. Neither talks about bringing American troops home not just from Iraq but from around the world. Our country is going bankrupt, and none of these sensible proposals are even on the table.

This destructive bipartisan consensus has suffocated American political life for many years. Anyone who tries to ask fundamental questions instead of cosmetic ones is ridiculed or ignored.

That is why the Campaign for Liberty was established: to highlight the neglected but common-sense principles we champion and reinsert them into the American political conversation.

The U.S. Constitution is at the heart of what the Campaign for Liberty stands for, since the very least we can demand of our government is fidelity to its own governing document. Claims that our Constitution was meant to be a “living document” that judges may interpret as they please are fraudulent, incompatible with republican government, and without foundation in the constitutional text or the thinking of the Framers. Thomas Jefferson spoke of binding our rulers down from mischief by the chains of the Constitution, and we are proud to follow in his distinguished lineage.

With our Founding Fathers, we also believe in a noninterventionist foreign policy. Inspired by the old Robert Taft wing of the Republican Party, we are convinced that the American people cannot remain free and prosperous with 700 military bases around the world, troops in 130 countries, and a steady diet of war propaganda. Our military overstretch is undermining our national defense and bankrupting our country.

We believe that the free market, reviled by people who do not understand it, is the most just and humane economic system and the greatest engine of prosperity the world has ever known.

We believe with Ludwig von Mises, Henry Hazlitt, and F.A. Hayek that central banking distorts economic decisionmaking and misleads entrepreneurs into making unsound investments. Hayek won the Nobel Prize for showing how central banks’ interference with interest rates sets the stage for economic downturns. And the central bank’s ability to create money out of thin air transfers wealth from the most vulnerable to those with political pull, since it is the latter who receive the new money before the price increases it brings in its wake have yet occurred. For economic and moral reasons, therefore, we join the great twentieth-century economists in opposing the Federal Reserve System, which has reduced the value of the dollar by 95 percent since it began in 1913.

We oppose the dehumanizing assumption that all issues that divide us must be settled at the federal level and forced on every American community, whether by activist judges, a power-hungry executive, or a meddling Congress. We believe in the humane alternative of local self-government, as called for in our Constitution.

We oppose the transfer of American sovereignty to supranational organizations in which the American people possess no elected representatives. Such compromises of our country’s independence run counter to the principles of the American Revolution, which was fought on behalf of self-government and local control. Most of these organizations have a terrible track record even on their own terms: how much poverty have the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund actually alleviated, for example? The peoples of the world can interact with each other just fine in the absence of bureaucratic intermediaries that undermine their sovereignty.

We believe that freedom is an indivisible whole, and that it includes not only economic liberty but civil liberties and privacy rights as well, all of which are historic rights that our civilization has cherished from time immemorial.

Our stances on other issues can be deduced from these general principles.

Our country is ailing. That is the bad news. The good news is that the remedy is so simple and attractive: a return to the principles our Founders taught us. Respect for the Constitution, the rule of law, individual liberty, sound money, and a noninterventionist foreign policy constitute the foundation of the Campaign for Liberty.

Will you join us?

***

Ron Paul supporters to hold 'Ronstock' convention

Updated Sun. Aug. 31 2008 10:34 AM ET

The Associated Press

WASHINGTON -- There's no room at the Xcel Energy Centre for maverick Ron Paul, so his acolytes have packed their cars, hitched rides on "Ronvoys" and will pitch tents at Ronstock '08 in defiance of next week's GOP convention in St. Paul, Minn.

Almost 9,800 tickets had been sold for the Rally for the Republic, being held in Minneapolis.

It seeks to bring together activists who are anti-war, anti-government regulation, anti-immigration, anti-taxes, anti-Federal Reserve, anti-outsourcing, pro-individual liberty, pro-civil liberties and pro-Paul.

The Ronvoys are fleets of buses and vans carrying Paul's loyalists.

A few rally-goers planned to walk from Green Bay, Wis., and join up with Paul for the final kilometres of their Walk4Freedom. Other attendees are driving, carpooling or flying in for the convention alternative.

Paul, a Texas congressman who failed in a bid for the Republican presidential nomination, considers the rally a celebration of traditional Republican values of limited government - and a poke in the eye of the GOP.

They don't plan to crash the Republican party, but to show they and their Campaign for Liberty are not going away.

"No matter how much our message is ignored or ridiculed, as was done in the campaign, no matter how much they did to us, it only energized our grass roots," Paul said.

The rally builds on Paul's presidential bid, in which he set a record for single-day fundraising on the Web and touched a nerve with some disaffected voters, largely in the Republican Party.

In a few Western states, Paul was a serious contender for votes, placing second ahead of Republican John McCain in Nevada and Montana. He drew 14 per cent from McCain in New Mexico, a battleground state.

But Paul has no speaking role at the GOP convention. He said his staff made overtures to the party, but nothing came of its efforts.

Republican Party spokeswoman Joanna Burgos said she had to research whether Paul was invited to speak when asked about a convention role for Paul.

"Our focus is really on this side of the river," Burgos said. "We think there's enough excitement and energy on this side."

McCain's campaign spokesman did not return a phone message.

Paul's faithful still hope to permeate the ranks of the establishment by winning local and state races and pulling in disenchanted party members.

There are a couple dozen Paul delegates attending the GOP convention, though some loyalists say there are more delegates who support Paul.

Meanwhile, their focus is on their own political convergence in Minneapolis.

"We only want to cause noise in the sense of letting people know there are other movements out there that other people believe in," said Kathleen Buchholz, 28, of Denver.

Unable to take time off from school for the rally, Buchholz is attending Tuesday's events, when Paul will speak. She's bypassing sleep to save on hotel costs and flying out early Wednesday.

Rally organizers reported last week they sold all 500 tickets priced at $85 each for their Real Politics Training School scheduled for Sunday.

Attendees will learn political-organizing skills and "how to compete and win at the political game," organizers said on the rally Web site.

Jon Stewart and Colbert Mock Sarah Palin Choice

At least people are talking about McCain's choice as oppose to the Democratic convention and Obama's speech. Having said that, what started off as a great choice is starting to cause some problems with the campaign.
-Darryl

Saturday 30 August 2008

Sarah Palin doesn't know what a Vice President does

Great pick initially but I think her lack of experience will prove to be a liability in the long run.
-Darryl


Greens get their first MP

Does this qualify them for a spot in the leaders debate? Unfortunately there will be an election before any Green gets to ask a question in the House of Commons.
-Darryl

Greens unveil former Liberal as first MP

Updated Sat. Aug. 30 2008 2:57 PM ET

CTV.ca News Staff

The Green Party now has its first MP in Parliament, and he is an ex-Liberal who had resigned from that party's caucus over accusations of election financing irregularities.

"Joining Elizabeth May and joining the Green Party feels a lot like coming home," Blair Wilson of B.C.'s West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country riding said Saturday at a news conference in Ottawa.

Wilson said he hoped to advance the causes of the environment and democracy in his new party.

"One-point-five million Canadians support the Green Party," he said. "They deserve a strong voice in the House of Commons and they deserve a strong voice in the leadership debate."

At the news conference, May said Wilson had a parliamentary ring on his finger. "This is the first time anyone with the House of Commons parliamentary seal is wearing a Green Party button."

May said the move shouldn't be characterized as opportunistic, "however, it is a hell of an opportunity."

A possible election campaign is looming, with signals indicating Canadians could be going to the polls in mid-October.

The Greens, a relatively young federal party in Canada, have not yet elected an MP in either a byelection or general election. As a result, its leaders have not been invited to participate in televised leaders' debates during the campaign. However, it did capture 4.5 per cent of the popular vote in the Jan. 23, 2006 election, which entitles it to public financing.

May noted in the release that with "a Green MP sitting in the House of Commons, it will now be impossible to exclude the Green Party from the televised leaders' debates in the next election."

May described her party whose policy ideas are part of the mainstream in Canadian politics. "Mr. (Gilles) Duceppe (of the Bloc Quebecois) has the opportunity to participate in the debates but not I? There's something not quite right there," she said in French.

The release noted that Wilson will serve as the party's immigration critic in its shadow cabinet and that he has served as an "Independent MP since autumn of 2007."

Wilson resigned from the Liberals after complaints emerged accusing him of spending irregularities in the 2005-06 federal election. CTV's Roger Smith told Newsnet that Elections Canada cleared Wilson in response to the allegation.

However, the Liberals told Wilson that he wouldn't be able to run for the party again in the next election because of personal legal and financial troubles, Smith said, adding the Liberals will be holding a nomination meeting in Wilson's riding next weekend.

"Not only do I embrace the policies of my new party, I will feel that all my past difficulties are justified if, by my actions, I can make a real difference by ensuring Elizabeth May is included in the leaders' debates," Wilson said a news release.

Running as an Independent would have been tough for Wilson. He might have a better chance as a Green MP, given the high interest in environmental issues in that part of British Columbia, he said.

Friday 29 August 2008


Canadian Election Oct. 14

This time I think there will be an election for real. Expect Harper to see the Governor General next Friday. I do not think we are going to see any by-elections that are currently set for September 8. It is time for the election teams locally to get ready. Within a week the writ will be dropped.
-Darryl

Harper set to trigger election call next week: PMO officials

http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2008/08/29/election-october.html

Stephen Harper is poised to trigger an election call for Oct. 14, senior officials in the Prime Minister's Office said Friday.

The officials said no firm decision has been made, but that it is probable Harper will seek to dissolve his minority government next week, sending the country to the ballot box the day after Thanksgiving.

A meeting Friday between Harper and Bloc Québécois Leader Gilles Duceppe gave the prime minister little hope that a fall session of Parliament can be productive, the officials said.

Earlier Friday, Duceppe also suggested that a federal election is imminent, saying he and Harper had laid out their positions, but did not talk about compromises.

"We explained our positions and [Harper] will consider them. I told him what our position was on all of the issues. Now, I think that beyond that, he is determined to have an election," Duceppe said following the meeting at the prime minister's residence in Ottawa.

Duceppe is the first opposition leader to respond to Harper's call for one-on-one meetings. Harper has sought meetings with all three opposition leaders to see if they can agree on an agenda for the fall session of Parliament, scheduled to begin Sept. 15.

NDP Leader Jack Layton will meet with Harper at 24 Sussex Drive on Saturday.

Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion's office has told Harper he would be available to meet with the prime minister on Sept. 9, a day after three byelections are to be held in Quebec and Ontario.

Harper, however, has said he is unwilling to wait until Sept. 9 to discuss whether Parliament can continue as is.

PMO officials said Friday it is unlikely Harper will wait for a meeting with Dion to call the election.

McCain selects Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as VP

Brilliant choice by McCain. Conservative, young, female, executive experience and pulls off a surprise to take back the agenda following Obama's speech last night. Kudos to McCain. I really thought he was going with either Romney or Lieberman. This pick should be well received.
-Darryl




Thursday 28 August 2008

Barack Obama Democratic Convention Speech

One of the best he has delivered. The crowd of 70,000 was awesome! I think momentum is back with the Obama campaign.
-Darryl



Fireworks



John Legend and will.i.am perform at the 2008 Democratic National Convention in Denver, Colo.

Democratic Convention: Gore, Richardson, Lewis, and Campaign Manager Plouffe Speeches

Tonight the Democrats pulled off quite a show. Over the last few days there have been several good speeches. The hype and excitement cannot be denied with the Denver venue falling in a swing state. The party clearly seems united and both Hillary and Bill Clinton will prove to be assets on the campaign trail. I think this convention was a game changer. This will be a tough act for the Republicans to follow. I will be surprised if there isn't some kind of bump for Obama after this convention.
-Darryl

Former Vice President Al Gore speaks to the Democratic National Congress



Governor Bill Richardson (D-NM) speaking at the 2008 Democratic National Convention in Denver, Colo.



Representative John Lewis delivers a tribute to the Reverand Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. at the 2008 Democratic National Convention in Denver, Colo.



Martin Luther King III speaks to Democratic National Convention on the 45th anniversary of his father's "I Have A Dream" speech



Campaign Manager David Plouffe addresses the 2008 Democratic National Convention in Denver, Colo.


First Class Ad from McCain Congratulating Obama

Great move from John McCain. I think this was a very classy thing to do and it isn't often done in politics. Today was a historic day in the United States.
-Darryl


McCain will pick running mate on Friday

It is looking like Mitt Romney or Tim Tim Pawlenty seem to be the most likely choices. I think in the end it will be Mitt Romney to balance the ticket between foreign policy and the economy.
CNN has reported that McCain has made his selection and it will be revealed on Friday. Tonight, Obama will be speaking in front of 70,000 in Denver to close the Democratic convention.
-Darryl

Barack Obama becomes the Democratic Party's Nominee


Today Delegates to the Democratic National Convention officially selected Barack Obama as the Party's presidential nominee.

Biden, Clinton and Kerry Speeches from Last Night

Joe Biden accepts the vice presidential nomination at the Democratic National Convention with an inspiring and personal speech.



Former President William Jefferson Clinton spoke at the 2008 Democratic National Convention, on August 27, 2008.



Senator John Kerry, former Democratic presidential candidate, spoke at the 2008 Democratic National Convention on August 27, 2008.

Wednesday 27 August 2008

McCain going after Hillary supporters with new ads

From the John McCain 08 Campaign...







All Candidates Set for Newmarket-Aurora Federal Election

If a federal election is called as expected some time around September 5; Belinda Stronach will officially retire as MP and 5 candidates will be looking to replace her.

Conservative Party - Lois Brown
Liberal Party - Tim Jones
Green Party - Glenn Hubbers
*NDP - Mike Seaward (running for nomination and was NDP candidate in the recent provincial election)
Progressive Canadian Party - Dorian Baxter

Currently PC Frank Klees is the MPP in the riding of Newmarket-Aurora.

Harper: Defending Northern Resources

PM announces plan to identify and defend northern resources


Hillary Clinton delivers with Speech

Great speech. I think she did what she had to in terms of uniting the party. I still think she would have been the strongest choice for VP.
-Darryl

Tuesday 26 August 2008

Speeches from the Democratic Convention:

Michelle Obama talks about the Barack Obama she knows at the Democratic National Convention in Denver.




Representative Dennis Kucinich (D-OH) speaking at the Democratic National Convention.

Best speech in my opinion from an emotional perspective that was delivered last night...
-Darryl



The big finish of Senator Kennedy's powerful speech at the 2008 Democratic National Convention in Denver.



Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi speaks at the Democratic National Convention in Denver.



Senator Ted Kennedy and Caroline Kennedy spoke at the 2008 Democratic National Convention.



Representative Jesse Jackson, Jr. speaks at the Democratic National Convention in Denver, CO



Tribute to President Jimmy Carter





Sunday 24 August 2008

US ads getting more negative on both sides

Ten weeks to go and we are seeing negative ad campaigns coming from both Obama and McCain. Most people say they do not like them, but ultimately they always seem to work as long as they don't cross the line. Below are some ads from the US campaign currently on the air.
-Darryl


From Obama:









From McCain:









Canadians will vote before Americans


All signs are now pointing to an election this fall in Canada. Harper is going to meet with the three opposition leaders and determine if a productive session is possible. If it is not, he has threatened to call an election. Stephane Dion is taking a lot of heat for having his MPs sit on their hands. The summer has largely seen election style speeches from both leaders. Events are becoming election rallies. Harper in Mississauga and Dion in Oakville is likely a preview of what we will see and hear in the upcoming campaigns. The by-elections also present an opportunity to test a few messages and make a final decision on the general election based on the results of these four contests. The Conservatives are ready for an election at anytime. Most candidates have been selected. The party has done a great job with raising funds and maintaining election readiness in each of the local ridings. It is unclear how ready the Liberal party is for a national campaign at this point. It is also unclear if Layton will pull the trigger if Dion decides to vote against a confidence motion. Layton and the NDP are in a serious fight with the Green Party for third place. The Bloc is also struggling to maintain their purpose with no talks of a referendum.

Right now it looks like the biggest issues will be the economy, environment, Afghanistan, crime and likely ethics. Most are predicting another minority based on regional considerations but anything can happen during campaign that requires voters to pay more attention to politics.

Election fever is clearly in the air. I think there is a good chance we will see one in the next couple of weeks. I predict Canadians will be voting before the Americans decide who will be the next president. Of course I have been wrong before largely because Dion allowed the Conservative agenda to pass by abstaining or not showing up for votes. This time Dion might not get the opportunity to avoid one should Harper take matters into his own hands. I do not think the US race will have much impact on how Canada votes. There are few comparisons between Obama and Dion and the major issues are different in America. The only impact you will see from the US elections might be some of the tactics used over there might come here. For example, I think the internet is going to play a huge role this time in the Canadian election.

Get the signs printed, buses ordered and campaign speeches written. It is election time in Canada!
-Darryl

New McCain Ad: Why not Hillary?


It's Biden


It's Biden

Personally I would have preferred Obama pick Hillary, but ultimately Joe Biden brings some good experience to the ticket in foreign affairs. His plan to end the Iraq war was the most realistic and detailed position among the candidates in the Democratic race. With the exception of Hillary, he was the best choice among the front runners speculated in the media.
-Darryl







The Text message from the Obama camp:

Darryl --

I have some important news that I want to make official.

I've chosen Joe Biden to be my running mate.

Joe and I will appear for the first time as running mates this afternoon in Springfield, Illinois -- the same place this campaign began more than 19 months ago.

I'm excited about hitting the campaign trail with Joe, but the two of us can't do this alone. We need your help to keep building this movement for change.

Please let Joe know that you're glad he's part of our team. Share your personal welcome note and we'll make sure he gets it:

http://my.barackobama.com/welcomejoe

Thanks for your support,

Barack


P.S. -- Make sure to turn on your TV at 2:00 p.m. Central Time to join us or watch online at http://www.BarackObama.com.

Thursday 21 August 2008

How can McCain not know how many houses he owns?

Is Obama the elitist in this contest?

Obama's new attack ad...I like how it ends



Where the story originated:








Obama needs Clinton or Gore as VP

Update: Obama has confirmed that his decision has been made in terms of who he will ask to be VP. He did not reveal his choice however. Prior to Saturday (most likely tomorrow) we should know exactly who that choice is. Obama met with Kaine earlier today and the leading three candidates still seem to be possible. As for Hillary, it is looking less likely, but who knows...maybe this is all a smokescreen for a blockbuster surprise where the "dream" ticket would become a reality.
-Darryl


The more I think about it, the more I cannot understand why Obama would name anyone besides Hillary as VP. Think of the situation right now:

-Polls are declining for Obama in key swing states, among blue collar voters, among older voters, among female voters and among Latino voters. His campaign has lost momentum and excitement. McCain has been effective in bringing Obama down to earth and portraying him as a celebrity without substance. He needs something to get off the defense and place a shot of excitement into his campaign.

-At the upcoming Democratic convention almost half of the delegates were initially supporters of Hillary Clinton.

-Obama is polling poorly on the economy and many Democrats and Americans associate the good economic times with Bill Clinton.

-The situation in Russia, Pakistan and Iran is quickly showing that national security experience is going to be crucial going forward in this campaign. No matter who Obama selects on his ticket, it will be obvious that national security and foreign policy will be major requirements to shore up Obama's lack of foreign credentials. The Clintons have a huge network of foreign contacts.

-Someone like Kaine is being considered because he might carry a swing state like Virginia. Would it not go with Hillary Clinton who has a 50 state organization from her primary campaign as well as her husband's presidency.

-Who can raise more money than the Clintons among the front runners currently being considered?

-Polls show that barley a majority of Clinton supporters will vote for Obama. Over 20% will vote for McCain. If uniting the Democratic movement is part of Obama's goal, how would selecting Biden address this situation? Clinton as VP could quickly unite the party and bring a much higher percentage of her voters into the Obama camp. No choice would unite the party more than Hillary who could instantly turn the Democratic convention into a unity love fest.

-If Hillary is snubbed, will her 2012 campaign kick off early?

-Is Obama prepared to spend weeks dealing with the controversy of selecting someone other than Clinton, become forced to explain why to the media and Hillary supporters and than attempt to unite a party full of disenfranchised democrats? Does he want to get so drastically off message with only 10 weeks to go with poor poll numbers despite the unpopularity of Bush?

-Who is a stronger campaigner on the VP short list than Bill and Hillary Clinton?

-Who has been more tested in the media and against Republican attacks than the Clintons?

-After the longest primary in history, almost a billion raised and spent, an organization in every state, similar views on the main issues and 18 million votes case; has Hillary not earned the number two spot? JFK selected his rival. Others have selected his rival. If Obama can work across the isle, show there is no such thing as a blue or red state, unite the country and bring out new voters; would it not be a appropriate to back that message up by showing he can work with Clinton despite a competitive nomination race?

-As potentially the first female president, does Hillary not help Obama's message of change despite her time in Washington as a Senator and First Lady? Initially Hillary was largely seen as Bill's husband. After her campaign, I think she has earned a legacy of her own and has proven to be her own person. Her time in the senate is far less than Obama's rival. I do not think Hillary represents status quo in Washington.

-Is Bill Clinton a liability? Hard to argue that when he obviously has ability to breakthrough in areas where Obama is trailing McCain. He will be hated by the far right, but how many of those voters does Obama expect to realistically get?

-Hillary and Bill are fighters. Who better to go negative on McCain than Hillary who proved to be a huge attack dog towards the end of her campaign. Her arguments were picked up and expanded by McCain. By joining the ticket, Hillary would reduce the damage of those previous attacks.

-Why would Hillary do it? She has already said she wants the job. She needs to pay off her debts. She is clearly the number two in the Democratic Party right now. The VP role would allow her to focus on health care or other issues she cares about from the executive branch.

-What would be a better way to overshadow the Republican convention than to name Hillary VP and steal the headlines for the next couple of weeks. Poll after poll shows that far and away Democrats prefer Obama to select Hillary. I think a major opportunity would be lost going with a lesser known candidate. With the exception of Al Gore, I cannot think of any name in the top tier that would be anything more than a total letdown if selected.

-If Obama really doesn't want Hillary (and many in his campaign do not), than at the very least he needs someone with the profile, organization, fundraising ability and experience. Al Gore could deliver that profile. Having said that, I think Obama should name Hillary as VP and then also his cabinet in advance. Can you imagine if he named Clinton is VP and then defined roles for Biden, Richardson, Gore, Powell, and others in a potential cabinet. The team around Obama would shore up his inexperience and minimize the risk that is holding many back from voting for an unknown quantity in the face of McCain's experience and track record.

-Conventional wisdom says that Biden is going to be the VP. The more I think about it, the more I am going to throw my money on a surprise with Hillary Clinton. Selecting someone else really doesn't make much sense and quite possibly could cost him the White House in 10 weeks.

I will be waiting for that text...

Darryl

Wednesday 20 August 2008



Conventions could be a disaster for both Obama and McCain


Starting this Monday, the real election kicks off in the US as both parties are due to hold their conventions. While everything will be tightly scripted with both parties trying to demonstrate unity and
enthusiasm; there is potential on both sides to host a disaster based on who they choose as their running mates.

Rumors are that this Saturday, Obama will finally send out his text message announcing his choice for VP. He will then appear with that candidate in Springfield, IL at an event two days before the Democratic convention. In contrast, August 29 is rumored to be the day that McCain will select his running mate. Both candidates have the potential to divide their party with the choices they might make.

In the case of the Democrats, a long primary has highlighted the division between former Clinton supporters and Obama supporters within the Democratic Party. If Obama picks a running mate other than Hillary Clinton, many people are likely to be disappointed with the media doing everything they can to highlight division at the convention among Hillary's supporters. With polls so tight (yesterday's actually showing for the first time a McCain victory) some have speculated that Hillary should be the only choice Obama should be considering for the sake of unity within the party and also to improve the chances that most of Hillary's 18 million supporters will show up and vote for Obama. If he picks Hillary Clinton, issues associated with unity, appeal to Latino, Catholic, Blue Collar and women demographics combined with Hillary's 50 state organization could drastically improve his chances to win the White House. Polls taken siting Hillary as a running mate have consistently shown a bump in Obama's numbers. Hillary and Bill Clinton also offer the chance to shore up Obama's inexperience, an argument that has worked well against him in both the Democratic primaries and in McCain's current campaign message. If Obama selects someone other than Hillary on Saturday, he could face weeks of justifying his pick over Hillary in the media and within his own party throwing off his campaign message. With Hillary's name in nomination, one has to wonder if in the event she is not selected as Obama's VP, will her supporters show up in Denver disenfranchised and cause problems at least in terms of the optics of unity. If Obama picks someone other than Hillary, that person is going to be constantly compared to Clinton and if polls take a dive, people are going to question why he didn't put his ego aside and go with the "dream ticket". All indications are Joe Biden is most likely to be Obama's choice. If that happens (or worse if someone like Kathleen Sebelius is selected), this convention risks division and as a result could prove to be a failure or disaster. On the flip side, picking Hillary could prove to be a huge success for Obama. New interest and enthusiasm could likely be added to his campaign. Optics would show a united party. The event would close with Al Gore and Obama speaking in front of 70,000 in Denver. Is picking someone else worth the risk? Ralph Nader is predicting Hillary Clinton will be Obama's surprise choice and if that happens expect Democrats to truly get fired up. On the flip side, if he goes with someone like Tim Kaine, it is hard to see how such an unknown name would draw any kind of excitement or approval from grassroots supporters.

In the case of Republicans, John McCain already is going to have a problem with unity when he shows up in Minnesota. Ron Paul is holding his "rally for the Republic" and could draw attention away from McCain should a large and loud group of enthusiastic young people show up to the event. Paul has a loyal and enthusiastic following. The optics of his rival convention could provide a stark contrast to the official Republican convention where there is potential that McCain's VP pick could divide the party and fuel further unrest with core Conservative voters. Rumor has it that McCain's team is floating key pro-choice advocates Tom Ridge and Joe Lieberman as potential VP picks. Both would slap the Evangelical movement in the face and create a revolt from core Conservatives already not fully satisfied with McCain's track record and candidacy. Some pundits argue, that leaking Lieberman or Ridge is a way to pave the way for Mitt Romney. While Romney was once pro-choice, he is now pro-life. Romney is crucial for McCain on the economy, but his own prospects have been a source of concern among social Conservatives (see Huckabee's comments). Perhaps leaking Lieberman and Ridge is a good way to make Romney's candidacy more accepted by the Evangelical base. Now is not the time for McCain to play his maverick side. He needs a safe Conservative pick or he could face a major split in his movement and kill all the momentum he has gained in recent weeks. With Obama speaking in front of 70,000 people in a swing state, optics will be poor for McCain unless he can demonstrate some enthusiasm and unity among his own supporters. Two bad scenarios for McCain would be a selecting a pro-choice running mate or in the unlikely event that Ron Paul draws a larger and more enthusiastic crowd in Minnesota.

With such a short time before the election, mistakes could have a huge impact on the outcome. Within days we will see the VP picks of both candidates. Those picks are going to set the stage for the conventions. The outcomes of the conventions will determine who has momentum in the race for president. There isn't much time to reverse momentum or any potential errors as people pay more attention following the summer and voters begin to make up their minds for good. If either side is thinking of taking a big risk (McCain selecting a pro-choice candidate/Obama picking someone other than Hillary) they should think twice.

This will be a great week for anyone following the US election closely. Does anyone out there have any opinions on who McCain or Obama should pick as their running mate?

Thanks for reading...

Darryl

Tuesday 19 August 2008



McCain: "In The 21st Century Nations Don't Invade Other Nations." My Thoughts on the Russia/Georgia crisis


Update and Breaking news: According to Norway, Russia has suspended all cooperation with NATO. On Poland and Missile Defense, the Russian foreign ministry has said that the response will "go beyond diplomacy". Russia is also planning on recognizing both breakaway provinces of Georgia. It is clear the escalation of this conflict is benefiting neither side.

Unbelievable statements given the war in Iraq from Bush and McCain. I do not support the Russian actions in Georgia and am alarmed by the current status of the relationship between Russia and the West right now. Unfortunately the situation in Iraq makes it impossible for Bush or McCain to take any kind of moral or political high road in this conflict.

We do not need another cold war. Russia's actions are disproportionate and they need to accept the terms of the ceasefire that were agreed to with Sarkozy for the sake of stability in Europe and reducing tension with the West. NATO countries need to be careful in terms of relations with Russia and avoid escalating this conflict to the point that Russia refuses to cooperate on other issues such as Iran, Sudan, Kosovo, nuclear weapons, energy or other mutual interests within the UN Security Council. Russia must accept their responsibilities as a major power and member of the G8. At the same time we must respect Russia as a major power and take their views seriously on world affairs. The collapse of the Soviet Union was seen as a humiliation and tragedy to Putin and ordinary Russians. The rapid growth of the Russian economy due to high oil prices and other resources have restored Russian pride and that is what drives Putin's popularity and power within his nation. The question now is how can we maintain that Russian pride, increasing economic growth and role on the world stage while at the same time encouraging Russia to embrace freedom, democracy and human rights? It is important that Russia see the benefits of cooperating with the West, NATO and EU? Georgia and the Ukraine have fully embraced democracy and freedom and that choice needs to be respected. Hopefully one day Russia and China will embrace the same path. In the meantime we are probably better served using the carrot instead of the stick when dealing with Russia.

Internally through Georgian politics, President Mikheil Saakashvili should be held accountable for initiating this conflict at a great cost to his country. The economy, military and infrastructure have taken a massive hit and it is quite possible that he will never recover the disputed provinces at the root of this conflict. Clearly his actions were a surprise to the Europeans and Americans as no one saw this coming. Finally he may have hurt Georgia's chances to join NATO in the near term as several alliance members are going to be timid about defending Georgia or Ukraine militarily against any potential military threats from Moscow. Several NATO members have chosen not to play a supportive role in the Afghanistan mission. If NATO cannot step up in Afghanistan by providing sufficient troops, how can anyone expect it to stand up to Russia? This confrontation with Russia is going to have to be solved through complex diplomacy.

Pakistan, China and Russia are the biggest threats to the West right now. Unfortunately America had its eye off the ball in Iraq. Russia is taking advantage of what it sees as American troops being stretched to thin combined with Bush's lame duck status and a lack of will on the part of the Europeans to get tough with Russia because of their reliance on oil. I do not envy the next president of the United States who is going to have a laundry list of tough international and economical challenges to face starting from day one in his first term.

Russia has promised that by Friday all troops will be out of Georgian territory. So far they have failed to keep their word on previous commitments. Unfortunately we have little leverage, determination or military ability to do much beyond watching this crisis unfold in Georgia. Hopefully this time the Russians will keep their word and allow its relationship with the West to improve. No one wants to return to the cold war. At the same time no one should accept a return to the Soviet mentality or a reversal of democratic gains made in Eastern Europe.
-Darryl



Pakistan's Musharraf resigns

Obviously this has huge implications for the Afghanistan mission, relations with India, nuclear weapons, extremism and future relations between the United States and Pakistan. Hopefully this turns out to be a good thing for democracy and the nation can move forward with a smooth transition of power. Pakistan has a lot of challenges to confront including their economy and gaining control of their borders and the tribal regions within their territory.
-Darryl


Harper's visit in Mississauga

Last night, I had the opportunity to visit Mississauga where Stephen Harper was holding a rally. It was great to see Hazel Mccallion in attendance. Hazel is the longest serving mayor in Canada and one of the best mayors in the world. The media is reporting 400 people were on hand to hear the speech, but I think the number was far higher than that. When I arrived there was no place to park because all of the lots and side streets were full. Jim Flaherty also made an appearance. The crowd was very diverse and to be honest I was surprised by level of support just outside of Toronto. After highlighting the Conservative record in government, Harper did a great job of tearing apart the Green Shaft due to the lack of actual emissions targets combined with a tax increase on virtually everything. With four by-elections currently ongoing and election fever in the air; last night had the feeling of a campaign kick off. The crowd was enthusiastic and I couldn't help but feel that the Conservative Party will be fully ready should there be an election this fall. Congratulations to Karma Macgregor and other organizers who made this event such a success. Today Harper is in Hamilton and later heads to Kitchener and London. All areas are crucial to any chances for Conservatives to take a majority next time. The riding of Guelph will be extremely interesting to watch. Personally I hope Harper just pulls the plug and goes to the people for a new mandate. From watching the ethics committee this summer, it is obvious parliament isn't working and it is time to clear the air. This minority parliament has already lasted well longer than the average minority parliament in Canada. After several false alarms, hopefully this time we finally face the electorate.

Thanks for reading...

Darryl


McCain should pick Rice...will likely pick Ridge

Update: Rush Limbaugh and other high profile Conservatives are warning McCain's campaign not to pick a pro-choice VP or in the case of Joe Lieberman a Democrat. With a rival convention already taking place from the Ron Paul campaign, the last thing McCain needs is a controversy at his convention. McCain is a maverick and often defies his own party, but after gaining some ground at the recent faith discussions, picking Ridge or Lieberman could be very risky. I would say odds are increasing for Huckabee or a candidate like Gingrich who are more likely to be accepted by the base. I still strongly think McCain's best option is Ms. Rice.
-Darryl

By all accounts, John McCain has had a great few weeks. His "celeb" ad about Obama defined his message and even drew a Paris Hilton response into the mix providing him with rare media attention following Obama's international tour. The Iraq surge seems to be working. The situation with Russia and Georgia emphasized his message and strengths on national security. At the recent faith based form he stood firm, answered questions directly and his positions seemed to unite Evangelicals behind him or at the very least demonstrated that he is comfortable talking about faith and the moral issues associated with it. Now with the Democratic convention set for next week, McCain could have a chance to make another big impact with his choice for VP. Unlike Obama, he does not have the Hillary issue interfering with his choice. Should Obama pick a VP other than Hillary and take a hit in the press and within his own party; McCain could be in a strong position to name a quality VP choice and go into the Republican convention with strong momentum leading into what will be the crunch time of this campaign. Despite the unpopularity of the Republican Party, McCain has hung in there in terms of polls against "the biggest celebrity in the world". The fact that he is close to the margin of error and still very competitive in swing states means that this presidential race is still too close to call.
In terms of a VP, McCain has the experience and foreign/military credentials Obama lacks; but there are still weaknesses that a potential VP will have to neutralize to close the deal. McCain still lacks a firm understanding and credibility on the economy. He has still got a ways to go in bringing Conservatives and Evangelicals onside. He should consider a youthful VP choice to neutralize the generational gap with his opponent. Finally he wants to continue to preserve his maverick image and appeal to independents. With no clear front runner, it is anyone's guess who McCain will pick. The choice is expected to be revealed on or around August 29.

Condoleezza Rice
Pro - I would argue the strongest chance for a female President in the near future. Seen as a moderate within the Bush administration. Great credentials and experience in foreign affairs. Young and African American. Probably the highest profile pick available.
Con - Tarnished by George W. Bush and his record. Seen as a failure by some as Secretary of State.

Mitt Romney
Pro - Has performed very well in attacking Obama and representing McCain in the media. It seems a lot of the personal friction between McCain and Romney has cooled. Romney offers strong economic credentials - the number one issue of the upcoming campaign. He was a contender and has been tested on the campaign trail.
Con - Look at Huckabee's comments about Romney. Not embraced by social Conservatives. Changed his positions frequently over the years. Unlikely to be able to win his home state for the Republicans.

Tim Pawlenty
Pro - Governor in the crucial swing state of Minnesota where Republicans will hold their convention. Youthful and moderate. Good working relationship with McCain. Outsider in Washington.
Con - Lacks national profile and name recognition.

Charlie Crist
Pro - Endorsed McCain early and is the governor in another crucial state Florida - a must win if the Republicans are to keep the White House. Seen as a moderate. Fairly young.
Con - Lacks national experience

Sarah Palin
Pro - Female governor of Alaska. Moderate Republican. Next to Rice top female choice in the Republican party.
Con - No national experience. Comes from Alaska - a safe Republican state.

Joe Lieberman
Pro - Calls himself a Democrat. Could emphasize bipartisanship record of McCain. Sees eye to eye with McCain on foreign policy.
Con - Not likely to be embraced by the religious right and many Republicans.

Rudy Giuliani
Pro - His experience and handling on the day of 9/11 is a huge asset. Strong on national security. Strong name recognition. Strong on his attacks of Obama. Generally well respected among Democrats and Independents. Could make the race in New York interesting although few would give Republicans a chance to take that state.
Con - Strengths are similar to McCain. Pro-choice stance will not be helpful with the Republican base. Ran the most disappointing presidential campaign in American history.

Fred Thompson
Pro - A strong Conservative. Brings back memories of Reagan. Has profile in Hollywood.
Con - Beyond Law and Order reruns, has anyone seen him since he dropped out of the Republican primaries?

Mike Huckabee
Pro - Hard not to like him personally. Strongest candidate in terms of appeasing the Evangelical base. Basically the runner up in the Republican primary. Has done a good job representing McCain in the media.
Con - Would he turn off independents? Comes from a safe Republican seat.

Carly Fiorina
Pro - Great in the media for McCain. Strong female and former CEO of HP. Could help neutralize McCain's weaknesses on the economy.
Con - Off the cuff remarks on birth control did McCain no favors. Lacks any kind of government or national experience. Questionable record during her time as HP CEO.

Ron Paul
Pro - The only Republican who was able to engage the youth. Has a huge loyal base of supporters. Finished second in the Republican primary. Strong economic credentials. Good pro-life record. Could neutralize any bleeding to Barr's party.
Con - Not endorsing McCain, in fact is holding a rival convention in MN the same night as the Republican convention. Hard to square his positions - particularly on foreign policy with McCain's. Same age as McCain. Not treated as a legitimate Republican by the Conservative media or base. Many of his supporters more likely to vote Barr or Obama.

Tom Ridge
Pro - Among the strongest credentials on national security. Represents a swing state in PA. Good chemistry with McCain. Has national profile.
Con - Pro-choice and that will not go over well with the base. Strengths compliment McCain's as oppose to neutralize his weaknesses.

Bobby Jindal
Pro - Youthful and first Punjab governor. Represents Katrina state of Louisiana. Was once considered a favorite to be VP. Washington outsider.
Con - Lacks any kind of national experience.

Steve Forbes
Pro - Good choice on the economy. Great name recognition. Has ran for President in the past.
Con - Ideas were not taken seriously. Hasn't been in the national scene in 8 years.

Rob Portman
Pro - Comes from a crucial swing state. Has strong economic credentials.
Con - Linked to George W. Bush

Mark Sanford
Pro - Governor of South Carolina with Washington experience in Congress. Youthful and could hold South Carolina, a state being targeted by the Obama campaign. Strong supporter of McCain during the primaries.
Con - Lacks national profile.

Michael Bloomberg
Pro - Great economic pick and would send a strong message to independents and Republican moderates.
Con - More likely to be on Obama's ticket. Would not go over well with the base. Unlikely to carry New York.

Newt Gingrich
Pro - Powerful and consistent Conservative with a strong record as speaker of the House. Has great ideas and is able to motivate the Conservative movement and base. Has extremely high profile. Strong fiscal and foreign policy credentials.
Con - Sometimes controversial with his remarks and has the power to overshadow McCain.


Who I think McCain should pick:
Condi Rice would have by far the greatest impact if McCain were to select her. She is youthful compared to McCain. Has strong relationships and experience with foreign leaders and dealing with the international challenges facing America. Seen as a maverick or moderate within the Bush administration at least in contrast to Dick Cheney. Has potential to be the next Republican leader and first female president of the United States. Is respected if not liked by independents and democrats. Being African American could neutralize the racial issue in the campaign. Would come with huge profile. While she is linked to George Bush, so is the Republican Party and John McCain. Realistically McCain can contrast his positions with Bush but cannot disassociate completely. Unfortunately I do not think it will happen as she has not been mentioned by pundits, leaks or the media and has expressed a desire to return to the academic world.

Who I think McCain will pick:
McCain has hinted he would consider a pro-choice candidate as his running mate. I think at the end of the day he is going to pick Tom Ridge because of his home state and security credentials. Unlikely to do much for him on the economy however. If that is McCain's central concern, expect Mitt Romney to be selected with controversy.

Realistic Wildcards:
Joe Lieberman offers a strong message of bipartisanship and could appeal to Democrats. Huckabee could solve his problems with Evangelicals but perhaps hurt him among independents. Pawlenty, Crist, Sanford, Portman, Jindal, and Giuliani are not outside the realm of possibilities. Fiorina or Palin would be strong female choices if he is serious about going after Hillary's supporters. Do not rule out Rice. Newt Gingrich would probably be received the best, but for whatever reason he is not considered a front runner. Don't rule out a surprise with McCain especially if he feels he needs someone to shore up the base.

Final Prediction: McCain takes Ridge despite stronger choices available to him.

Thanks for reading...

Darryl

 

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